576753253266542564326433+7root filter4 ≠ 3never clears3 = 3clears on landing
Technique

Risk and survival objectives

When the game ends the first time you go broke, the average payout is the wrong thing to maximise; you also have to care about the bad tail.

Read the primer: Risk and survival objectives

On this page

Give the depth-4 search one human rule at the root — refuse to drop a 3 or higher above the row where it could still clear vertically, and measure on fresh paired games whether refusing extends life, and how often the rule actually has to override the search's own choice.

The intuition

The owner's observation, from watching play: the search lets a 3 or a 4 land as the fifth or sixth disc of a column, where it can never clear downward, and a few rises later the game ends under it. A human treats that placement as a danger — "it must be cracked horizontally now", and simply does not make it when there is a choice. The entombed-disc analysis showed the observation is real (three quarters of the search's deaths end with such a disc on the board, with about two rises of warning) but that the search's board scorer already values those positions correctly. What it left open is the action: was the entombing move avoidable at acceptable cost?

This experiment asks exactly that, in the smallest form an "emergency mode" can take: a trigger computed from the public board and a constraint that overrides the search's preferred column.

How it works, step by step

  1. The trigger. Before each move the policy looks at the next disc's value n and each legal column's height. A column is packed by gravity, so a disc landing as the (n+1)-th disc or higher can never clear vertically. The landing row run is also known before any chance event.
  2. Two strengths of the rule. Strict refuses a column only when the disc would be vertically dead and already entombed by its row (run longer than n). Literal (the owner's wording) refuses every vertically dead landing unless the disc clears on arrival. Values 1 and 2 are exempt; the scorer already prices them.
  3. The same search chooses among what remains. The filtered search is the bit-exact fast fair-D4 search with a root mask (generated from the gated source by a checked substitution); with every column allowed it is the reference move for move. If the rule refuses every column, the unfiltered search decides.
  4. Coverage is measured, not assumed. At every root where the rule refuses something, the unfiltered search is also run, so the artifact records how often the rule actually changed the decision.
  5. One paired screen. Three arms (unchanged, strict, literal) play the same 128 never-read seeds at depth 4 with five chance samples. The gate, fixed before the seeds are opened: strict beats unchanged with a positive 95% lower bound, no lower-quartile regression, both halves positive, and an override rate of at least 2% (otherwise the rule barely applied and the run is inconclusive).
Technical recordThe record

Theory TH-20260822-survival-instinct-vertical-clear-26f173b5; experiment EX-20260822-survival-instinct-root-filter-8531cbd9 (frozen, SCREEN); lease SL-20260822T060000Z-a52c0000 (seeds 0xa52c00000xa52c007f for the screen, the remainder reserved for replication). CHECK gates in runs/RUN-20260822T063817Z-a5d4c143/gates.log: mask unit cases, parity of the all-allowed filtered search with FastSearch, mirrored masks and actions, thread-count determinism. The screen (RUN-20260822T063900Z-a4baa04e) is queued behind the leaf-evolution screen so the two never share the machine.

Sources

  • filter.hpp: the trigger (vertically dead landing; strict and literal rules)
  • build.sh — generates FilteredFastSearch from fast-search.hpp with a diff guard
  • gate.cpp, run.cpp — CHECK gates and the three-arm paired cohort runner
RecordsTheories, experiments and results that reference this directory

Claim: Survival instinct: when the next disc (value n >= 3) would land as the (n+1)-th or higher disc of a column it can never clear vertically, and refusing such placements at the root of the fair depth-4 search — leaving the search to choose among the remaining legal columns — extends mean paired lifetime and score on fresh development games relative to the unchanged search, by more than a 128-game paired cohort's detection floor.

This theory is currently mixed at the public-development (a cohort for deciding what to try next, not confirmation) level.

It compares fast-d4s5-survival-instinct-strict against fair-d4 at the SCREEN (a 32-game paired screen) level, using public-development data.

valid run outcome: inconclusive The run was valid and the outcome was inconclusive (public-development (a cohort for deciding what to try next, not confirmation)). Read the result.

resultvalid runoutcome: inconclusivetier: public-developmentRS-20260822T233343Z-12becce9

The run was valid; the outcome was inconclusive, at the public-development (a cohort for deciding what to try next, not confirmation) level. Of 5 preregistered checks, 2 passed and 3 failed.

Held-out SCREEN of the survival-instinct root filter, depth 4 five strata, 128 paired never-read games 0xa52c0000+. STRICT (refuse a landing that is vertically dead AND entombed by its row): mean 346838 vs unchanged 348808, paired delta -1970 (bootstrap 95% bounds -27738 to +22313, paired sd 171933, floor 24999), W-T-L 41-26-61, moves 100.95 vs 101.32; the filter refused a column at 811 of 12922 decisions and overrode the unchanged search's column at 254 (1.97%), just under the preregistered 2% coverage bar, so the primary gate is recorded as INCONCLUSIVE by its own rule: the strict rule neither helps nor hurts measurably and rarely applies. LITERAL (the owner's wording, refuse every vertically dead landing that does not clear on arrival; secondary arm): mean 251744, paired delta -97064 (LB -136887, UB -59500), W-T-L 43-0-85, moves 75.67 vs 101.32, overrides 1243 of 9686 (12.8%): a clear, valid negative — forbidding vertically dead landings outright costs about a quarter of the game's length. Both arms: 0 incomplete and 0 illegal decisions.

Technical recordLimitations recorded with the resultRS-20260822T233343Z-12becce9
  • Single 128-game development-tier screen; the strict arm's effect, if any, is below the 25,000-point floor of this cohort.
  • The strict coverage of 1.97% is within rounding of the 2% bar; the inconclusive label follows the preregistered rule literally rather than the spirit, and the deltas are reported in full.
  • The screen ran after the evolution's own screen on the same otherwise idle machine; decisions are deterministic, wall times are not timing-grade.
  • The literal arm's negative rejects the rule as a hard root constraint at depth 4; a soft penalty the search can weigh is a different candidate.

Full record →

Agent contextSource files, operational notes and how to reproduce

Directory: approaches/lifetime-objective/survival-instinct