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P-SOL-1: panel2 sibling corpus with CRN Kaplan-Meier outcome labels, NNUE retraining, and the G0/G1/G2 offline gates

supersededtier CHECKalgorithmicno-gameplaypublic-policyEX-20260823-sol-corpus-and-offline-gate-4d3d86e4
No explanation has been written for this experiment yet. Add web/content/research/EX-20260823-sol-corpus-and-offline-gate-4d3d86e4.mdx and it will appear here. The registered protocol is shown below.

The registered protocol

Full protocol: runs/RUN-20260823T191900Z-b9f8f80d/kimi-k3-main-design.md sections 3-7 and 10 (P-SOL-v1), fixed as written; this record freezes its decision structure. Stages: (G0) extend the sibling-corpus generator with a panel2 mode (PanelRecordV2 as specified; v1 output byte-identical, gated) and run the continuation-engine fidelity ladder on 256 D3-N7M6 behaviour games (seeds 0xa5216000-0xa52160ff), K=6, H=48, all three engines on identical roots with identical CRN tapes; mini-ladder of 64 roots (D1 vs D3 arms) runs first. Proceed with the cheapest engine whose within-root Kendall-tau vs D3 N7M6 has 95% LB >= 0.85 (cluster bootstrap by origin, 10,000 resamples, seed 0xb0071eaf); if none, stop (F1). (C) Main corpus 2,048 games on 0xa5217000-0xa52177ff (70% D3 N7M6, 15% D3 N7M6 eps=0.10, 15% D2 behaviour), ~48,000 roots at panel stride, K=16, H=48 continuations with the G0-selected engine; D2 fallback branch preregistered (6,000 roots, K=8, H=40) if the D1 branch is unaffordable. Whole-origin split origin mod 10 -> train 0-7 / val 8 / test 9. (T) Train the unchanged 572k NNUE with L = 1.0 pairwise-logistic ranking on delta KM expected lifetime (pair weight min(1,|delta|/(2*SE_CRN))) + 0.5 censor-aware log-lifetime + 0.25 masked-BCE hazard + 0.25 flow; AdamW 3e-3, wd 1e-4, cosine, batch 512 roots, 30 epochs, early stop and model selection on val within-root tau; 5 init seeds. (G1/G2) Gate set: 512 fresh D3-N7M6 games on 0xa5219000-0xa52191ff, 4,096 roots with exact D4 sibling values (d4-rank.cpp adaptation), exact D1/D2, incumbent LeafNet and student on identical roots.

Candidate
panel2-km-label-nnue-leaf
approaches/lifetime-objective/sibling-corpus/generate.cpp
Comparator
incumbent played-action LeafNet (finding-08) and exact D1/D2/D4 orderings
approaches/lifetime-objective/learned-leaf/train_leaf.py

Primary metric

G1: student top-1 vs exact-D4 argmax on the 4,096-root gate set (clustered by origin), against 0.55 absolute and incumbent+0.03 (paired McNemar 95% LB > 0)

Statistical unit: root

Pass criteria, fixed in advance

  • Panel2 byte-identity gate: v1 panel and default state output byte-identical with panel2 off; featurizer parity on 1,000 stored RUN-A51D rows.
  • G0: cheapest engine tau 95% LB >= 0.85 (else stop, F1).
  • G1: student top-1 >= 0.55 AND >= incumbent + 0.03 (McNemar LB > 0). Marginal band [0.52,0.55): proceed to a d4s5-only screen. Below 0.52 or below incumbent+0.01: fail (F2/F3 routed by G2).

On pass: Register the successor gameplay experiment exactly as P-SOL-v1 section 8 (blend tuning on reusable-development cohorts; 256-game paired screens at d4s5/d4s7 with rarity and futility stops; the D3 N7M6 deployment arm) before any gameplay seed is opened. No tier above CHECK is claimed by this experiment.

On fail: Record valid + fail with the G2 decomposition stating whether the target or the fit failed; the label family (F3) or the coverage claim (F2) is closed for this configuration; no gameplay cohort is opened; the D2-fallback and scale-out routes are noted, not run.

Data and reuse

Training-lease block only (0xa5216000-0xa52191ff inside the SEEDLEASE-A52 reserve): G0 ladder 256 origins, main corpus 2,048, gate set 512 (gate origins become development-read on use and never train). No development, protected or final cohort is read. The offline gate compares against the incumbent LeafNet checkpoint (runs/RUN-A52-LEAF) without re-reading its cohorts. Gameplay (blend tuning and 256-game screens, including the D3 N7M6 arm) is a successor experiment registered only if G1 passes.

seed leases: SL-20260823T215000Z-a5216000

What happened

No result has been recorded for this experiment.