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Record idEX-20260902-kf-six-weight-cem-d018cc89

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Technical recordThe registered protocolEX-20260902-kf-six-weight-cem-d018cc89
Hypothesis
A cross-entropy method over the six weights (population 64, elite 8, 30 generations, isotropic Gaussian start mean 0 and sd 1, per-dimension sd floor 1e-3, fitness = mean lifetime in moves over 256 paired training games per generation from consecutive blocks of the already-open SEEDLEASE-A52 d2 training range starting at 0xa5200000, common random numbers across the population within a generation, exploration RNG in the policy-sampling domain seeded 0x6b660010, 2,000-move cap) followed by re-selection of the final elites and the running best on a fresh 1,024-game training block, frozen as unit-L2-normalised weights, and then read ONCE on the pilot cohort 0xa5277000-0xa52770ff against the pilot's existing arms, tests theory clauses (a)-(c). The candidate is the six-feature linear policy of EX-20260902-kf-linear-q-rust-transfer-4328a730 with different weights; no feature, rule or engine changes.
Arms
ArmNameEntry pointManifest
Candidatedrop7-kf-linear-q search (CEM over six weights), frozen optimumapproaches/value-policy-learning/klein-friedmann-linear-q/rust/src/bin/search.rs
Comparatortransplanted authors' weights (pilot arm transplant-py-seed10), uniform-random legal play, and fair d4s7 on the paired 32-seed subset, all from runs/RUN-20260902T081659Z-d2aa6375/kf-linear-qapproaches/value-policy-learning/klein-friedmann-linear-q/rust/src/bin/evaluate.rs
Classification
algorithmic
Information boundary
public-policy
Benchmark tier
PILOT
Lifecycle
preregistered
Primary metric
paired mean-lifetime delta of the frozen optimum over the transplanted-weights arm on the 256 pilot games, one-sided 95% percentile-bootstrap lower bound (10,000 resamples, RNG seed 0x6b660001)
Secondary metrics
  • mean corrected score and its paired delta over the transplanted arm and over uniform-random
  • fair d4s7 versus the optimum on the paired 32-seed subset
  • per-generation best and mean fitness, elite mean and sd (the search curve)
  • re-selection block means for every finalist versus their generation fitness (overfitting check)
  • the frozen weight vector and its cosine similarity to the transplanted and engine-learned vectors
  • wall seconds and moves per second
Statistical unit
whole-game
Uncertainty method
paired per-game deltas with one-sided 95% percentile bootstrap lower bounds; detection floor 1.645 sd/sqrt(n) reported
Data role
previously-evaluated-development
Seed leases
none recorded
Whole-origin split
yes
Reuse disclosure
Zero new seeds. Search fitness and re-selection read the SEEDLEASE-A52 d2 TRAINING block (0xa5200000-0xa5201fff for 30 generations x 256 games, then 0xa5202000-0xa52023ff for re-selection), a block already re-read for training by RUN-20260902T081659Z-d2aa6375; its role is unchanged. The frozen optimum is read once on the pilot cohort 0xa5277000-0xa52770ff, which is previously evaluated development data already read by that run; this is a second diagnostic read and keeps the pilot tier. The comparator rows are the existing pilot artifact, not new games. The coordinator's confirmation of the training-block reuse requested in the 2026-09-02 log covers this experiment too.
Pass criteria
  1. S1 (theory a): the frozen optimum's paired lifetime delta over transplant-py-seed10 on the 256 pilot games has LB95 > 0.
  2. S2 (theory b): the optimum's mean corrected score is below 205,530 and fair d4s7's paired score delta over it on the 32-seed subset has LB95 > 0.
  3. S3 (theory c, recorded either way): the re-selection block mean of the chosen finalist is within the 1,024-game detection floor of its final-generation fitness.
  4. Mechanics: zero illegal decisions; the evaluate rows for the optimum are byte-identical on a repeated run.
On pass
Record a pilot-tier assessment; the optimum becomes the reference six-weight policy for any future correction-term test inside the depth-4 leaf. No SCREEN is opened by this record unless S2 fails.
On fail
Record valid + fail for the exact CEM configuration; the plateau is then attributed to the features and no further six-weight search is warranted.
Gate fixed before controlled data
yes
Resources
Wall seconds1800
CPU threads8
Max host bytes4294967296
Max GPU bytes
GPU devices
Stop conditions
  1. Stop at 1,800 s wall.
  2. No seed outside 0xa5200000-0xa52023ff (search) and 0xa5277000-0xa52770ff (single read) may be opened under this record.
  3. Any NaN weight or illegal decision aborts the run as invalid.
Expected artifacts
Amendments
none recorded
Technical recordResults recorded against this protocol1 record
valid runoutcome: passsupported-as-testedtier: pilotRS-20260902T084356Z-784ebf14

A cross-entropy search over the six Klein-Friedmann feature weights against whole-game lifetime (population 64, elite 8, 30 generations of 256 paired training games, then re-selection of nine finalists on a fresh 1,024-game block) converged by generation ten and finished in 4.5 s. Its frozen unit-normalised optimum (0.429, 0.277, 0.145, 0.033, 0.736, 0.419 for lowest-column, row detonations, column detonations, tallest-column, a-clearing-1, the-disc-clears), read once on the 256 pilot games, lives 44.82 moves and scores 138973 points: +18.57 moves over uniform-random [LB95 +17.24] and +4.29 moves [LB95 +2.81], +15005 points [LB95 +9755] over the transplanted authors' weights, winning 136 of 256 paired games. So the plateau of the temporal-difference-learned weights (about 36 moves engine-learned, 40.5 transplanted) was set by the optimizer, not by the feature set. The ceiling of the six features under this search is about 45 moves and 139,000 points; fair d4s7 on the first 32 seeds still beats the optimum by +233362 points [LB95 +153370] on 30 of 32 games, so no SCREEN against depth-4 is warranted. The optimum's direction is 0.75 cosine from the transplanted vector and 0.55 from the engine-learned one; it puts its largest weight on a clearing 1 next to gray discs and nearly none on the tallest-column feature. All three theory clauses are supported as tested at pilot tier.

What it had to pass
  • S1 (theory a): frozen optimum's paired lifetime delta over transplant-py-seed10 on the 256 pilot games has LB95 > 0 — observed: +4.29 moves [LB95 +2.81] (floor 1.46), 136/42/78; score +15005 [LB95 +9755]
  • S2 (theory b): optimum's mean corrected score < 205,530 and fair d4s7 beats it on the 32-seed subset with LB95 > 0 — observed: mean score 138973; fair d4s7 minus optimum +233362 points [LB95 +153370], d4s7 wins 30/32; +63.28 moves [LB95 +41.38]
  • S3 (theory c): chosen finalist's re-selection block mean within the 1,024-game detection floor of its final-generation fitness — observed: generation fitness 43.29 moves vs re-selection 43.25 on the fresh 1,024-game block; the single-generation best-ever (44.82 on its 256 games) re-selected to 43.12 and was passed over
  • Mechanics: zero illegal decisions; evaluate rows byte-identical on a repeated run — observed: 0 illegal decisions in the search (asserted per candidate) and the cohort read; evaluate-cem.json and evaluate-cem-repeat.json identical apart from wall time (repeat-check.txt)
Technical recordRecorded metricsRS-20260902T084356Z-784ebf14
search
generations
30
population
64
elite
8
gamesPerGeneration
256
selectGames
1,024
wallSeconds
4.5392
bestMovesByGeneration
  1. 39.9180
  2. 42.1172
  3. 42.7852
  4. 44.6094
  5. 44.4883
  6. 43.8320
  7. 42.9453
  8. 43.1523
  9. 43.5195
  10. 43.8320
  11. 43.1406
  12. 43.6016
  13. 43.6094
  14. 43.5586
  15. 44.4023
  16. 43.0352
  17. 43.4297
  18. 42.5625
  19. 43.2500
  20. 42.7461
  21. 44.8203
  22. 42.3438
  23. 42.1016
  24. 42.3945
  25. 44.3477
  26. 43.0898
  27. 43.5195
  28. 43.6211
  29. 42.3281
  30. 43.2891
meanMovesByGeneration
  1. 27.9308
  2. 37.3329
  3. 40.4877
  4. 42.8185
  5. 42.5170
  6. 42.7521
  7. 41.8117
  8. 42.3870
  9. 42.8383
  10. 42.7766
  11. 42.4297
  12. 42.8735
  13. 42.7315
  14. 42.8417
  15. 43.8787
  16. 42.6235
  17. 42.9761
  18. 42.4012
  19. 43.1026
  20. 42.5546
  21. 44.4932
  22. 42.1213
  23. 41.9575
  24. 42.2039
  25. 44.1593
  26. 42.8649
  27. 43.4154
  28. 43.4128
  29. 42.2687
  30. 43.2465
finalists
  1. finalist
    0
    generationFitness
    43.2891
    selectMeanMoves
    43.2256
    selectMeanScore
    133455.1670
    weights
    1. 1.4031
    2. 0.9098
    3. 0.4755
    4. 0.1085
    5. 2.4141
    6. 1.3718
  2. finalist
    1
    generationFitness
    43.2891
    selectMeanMoves
    43.2305
    selectMeanScore
    133471.1719
    weights
    1. 1.4077
    2. 0.9060
    3. 0.4755
    4. 0.1086
    5. 2.4154
    6. 1.3705
  3. finalist
    2
    generationFitness
    43.2891
    selectMeanMoves
    43.2275
    selectMeanScore
    133455.2119
    weights
    1. 1.4017
    2. 0.9084
    3. 0.4753
    4. 0.1079
    5. 2.4100
    6. 1.3684
  4. finalist
    3
    generationFitness
    43.2891
    selectMeanMoves
    43.2549
    selectMeanScore
    133563.5381
    weights
    1. 1.4064
    2. 0.9072
    3. 0.4758
    4. 0.1083
    5. 2.4153
    6. 1.3736
  5. finalist
    4
    generationFitness
    43.2695
    selectMeanMoves
    43.1748
    selectMeanScore
    133294.2393
    weights
    1. 1.4080
    2. 0.9078
    3. 0.4768
    4. 0.1091
    5. 2.4138
    6. 1.3712
  6. finalist
    5
    generationFitness
    43.2695
    selectMeanMoves
    43.1748
    selectMeanScore
    133294.2393
    weights
    1. 1.4032
    2. 0.9087
    3. 0.4760
    4. 0.1115
    5. 2.4107
    6. 1.3710
  7. finalist
    6
    generationFitness
    43.2695
    selectMeanMoves
    43.1768
    selectMeanScore
    133294.2842
    weights
    1. 1.4055
    2. 0.9094
    3. 0.4770
    4. 0.1107
    5. 2.4132
    6. 1.3700
  8. finalist
    7
    generationFitness
    43.2695
    selectMeanMoves
    43.1748
    selectMeanScore
    133294.2393
    weights
    1. 1.4089
    2. 0.9078
    3. 0.4762
    4. 0.1110
    5. 2.4101
    6. 1.3709
  9. finalist
    8
    generationFitness
    44.8203
    selectMeanMoves
    43.1201
    selectMeanScore
    133081.6416
    weights
    1. 1.3972
    2. 0.9119
    3. 0.4833
    4. 0.0984
    5. 2.4099
    6. 1.3699
chosen
generationFitness
43.2891
selectMeanMoves
43.2549
selectMeanScore
133563.5381
rawWeights
  1. 1.4064
  2. 0.9072
  3. 0.4758
  4. 0.1083
  5. 2.4153
  6. 1.3736
frozenUnitWeights
  1. 0.4288
  2. 0.2766
  3. 0.1451
  4. 0.0330
  5. 0.7363
  6. 0.4188
cohortArm
games
256
meanScore
138972.5586
medianScore
121,323
q25Score
103931.7500
minScore
85,355
maxScore
350,157
meanMoves
44.8164
q25Moves
35
censored
0
clearsPerMove
1.5068
revealsPerMove
0.7416
meanChainDepth
1.5353
maxChainDepth
9
illegal
0
incomplete
0
wallSecondsPerGame
0.0000
pairedVsRandom
score
meanDelta
65709.8086
lowerBound95OneSided
60921.2539
detectionFloor
4796.4699
wins
249
ties
0
losses
7
n
256
moves
meanDelta
18.5703
lowerBound95OneSided
17.2422
detectionFloor
1.3308
wins
248
ties
7
losses
1
n
256
pairedVsTransplant
score
meanDelta
15004.5625
lowerBound95OneSided
9754.6250
detectionFloor
5205.5411
wins
159
ties
1
losses
96
n
256
moves
meanDelta
4.2852
lowerBound95OneSided
2.8125
detectionFloor
1.4604
wins
136
ties
42
losses
78
n
256
fairD4s7MinusOptimumOn32Seeds
score
n
32
meanDelta
233361.8125
lowerBound95OneSided
153370.2500
detectionFloor
84813.9559
d4Wins
30
moves
n
32
meanDelta
63.2813
lowerBound95OneSided
41.3750
detectionFloor
23.2453
d4Wins
30
cosineToTransplant
0.7500
cosineToEngineLearnedV1a
0.5470
bootstrap
resamples
10,000
rngSeedHex
0x6b660001
method
percentile, one-sided 95% lower bound
Limitations
  • Pilot tier: the frozen optimum was read once on a previously evaluated development cohort that the parent pilot had already read; the comparator rows are that pilot's artifact. Nothing here can be promoted.
  • Search fitness re-read 8,704 seeds of the already-open training block without a new lease record; the coordinator's confirmation requested for the parent pilot covers this run and is still pending.
  • One search configuration and one policy-sampling seed; the ceiling figure (about 45 moves) is a lower bound on what the six features can reach, not a proof of their optimum.
  • The fair d4s7 comparison uses 32 games with a detection floor near 85,000 points.
  • Ran concurrently with the fair-d4s7 arm on the same laptop; the 4.5 s wall time is indicative.

Open the result record

Agent contextHow to extend this record

To add a reader-facing explanation, write web/content/research/EX-20260902-kf-six-weight-cem-d018cc89.mdx; it renders above this record on the next request. The registered protocol itself is in the technical record above.

Record file: research/experiments/EX-20260902-kf-six-weight-cem-d018cc89.json, validated against research/schemas/experiment-v1.schema.json. Protocol hash: b3bbe98421b41a3d4be666c36755c56d9acd14b19191d47f34923e11427d1774.

Registered by Claude Code / claude-fable-5-1 (claude-q-learning).