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Record idEX-20260905-ntuple-scale-tc-td-leaf-d3-535b2620

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Technical recordThe registered protocolEX-20260905-ntuple-scale-tc-td-leaf-d3-535b2620
Hypothesis
Candidate: the stock fair expectimax search at depth 3, seven chance strata, terminal utility -1,000,000, policy seed 0xd7075eed, completion-guaranteeing work bound work_bound_for(3,7)+1, 64k-entry direct-mapped table (the nnue-evolution deployment configuration), with an n-tuple lookup-table leaf: the sum, over the active patterns of the reflection-canonical board, of learned f32 entries in rise units (x 17,000 points), the layout chosen by the pilot from {rows, cols, win23, win32} x {phase=none, cols, all} where rows/cols are absolute-position seven-cell line tuples (10^7 entries each), win23/win32 are absolute-position 2x3 and 3x2 window tuples (30 placements each, 10^6 entries each) and phase conditions a family on the moves remaining until the rise (x5). The visible next disc is not an input. Weights: fresh tables initialised to 20 rise units spread over the active entries, trained on-policy by TD(0) with temporal-coherence per-entry step sizes (alpha x |E|/A, alpha = 1.0 unless the pilot selects 0.25; error clamped to +-30 rise units) from complete games played by the greedy one-ply chance-state policy over the same tables (seven stratified reveal samples per column from the public sampler, epsilon 0) on the Rust bitboard engine, 32 asynchronous workers sharing the tables without locks (Hogwild; a lost update is tolerated and training is therefore not bit-reproducible across runs, disclosed as a limitation; the gate binary proves the serial update rule is deterministic). Stage 0 (CHECK): gate --probe-start 0xa5277000 on the already-opened Rust-engine probe block; all gates must pass before the first leased seed is read. Stage A (PILOT, training-role seeds): six configuration arms trained from scratch for 2 x 10^8 moves each on SL-20260905T191317Z-09895ea2 read in order from 0xa5300000 (every arm reads the same seed order), validated every 5 x 10^7 moves on the 64-game training-role validation block SL-20260905T191317Z-549265de (0xa52f2240) with the paired line-up ntuple-d3s7 / ntuple-1ply / fair-d3s7 on identical seeds: A rows,cols,win23,win32,phase=cols alpha 1.0; B rows,cols,win23,win32,phase=none alpha 1.0; C rows,cols,win23,win32,phase=all alpha 1.0; D rows,cols,phase=cols alpha 1.0 (lines only); E win23,win32,phase=none alpha 1.0 (windows only, the mechanism ablation); F rows,cols,win23,win32,phase=cols alpha 0.25. Selection rule, fixed here: the arm whose final validation point (2 x 10^8 moves) has the largest paired mean score margin of ntuple-d3s7 over fair-d3s7; ties by fewer table entries. Stage B (main run, training-role seeds): the selected configuration trained from fresh tables for 4 x 10^9 moves or 18,000 s of wall time, whichever comes first, on the same training lease and seed order, chunk 2 x 10^7 moves, validation every 2 x 10^8 moves on the same validation block, checkpoint at every validation point; the candidate is the tables at the validation point with the largest paired margin (best-weights.bin; ties to the later point). Stage C (freeze): SHA-256 of best-weights.bin recorded as candidate-weights.sha256 before the screen lease opens. Stage D (SCREEN, public-development, one-shot): 256 paired games on SL-20260905T191317Z-c25f58cd (0xa52f2140-0xa52f2240) with four arms on identical seeds: candidate-d3s7 (the candidate), candidate-1ply (the same tables played directly, diagnostic), fair-d3s7 (the comparator: the identical search with the frozen fair leaf) and fair-d4s7 (the program's standing reference, diagnostic). Every stage runs through approaches/ntuple-rl/ntuple-scale/scripts/pipeline.sh, which hard-codes the leased sub-blocks and records per-stage wall, CPU and peak-RSS usage. Timing measured on the 2026-09-05 smoke run: 1.4 x 10^6 training moves per second on 32 threads with the arm-A layout (4.8 x 10^8 entries, 5.76 GB trainable), so the pilot costs about 15 minutes and the main run about 50 minutes of training plus validation.
Arms
ArmNameEntry pointManifest
Candidated3s7-ntuple-scale-leafapproaches/ntuple-rl/ntuple-scale/src/bin/train.rs
Comparatorfair-d3s7approaches/fair-expectimax/rust-engine/src/leaf.rsresearch/benchmarks/baselines-v1.json
Classification
algorithmic
Information boundary
public-policy
Benchmark tier
SCREEN
Lifecycle
completed
Primary metric
paired mean whole-game score delta, candidate-d3s7 minus fair-d3s7, both at the identical d3s7 configuration, 256 held-out games
Secondary metrics
  • paired mean moves delta; numbered clears per move and cover reveals per move; mean occupied cells
  • lower quartile, median, maximum score; W-T-L; first-half (seeds 0-127) and second-half (128-255) paired mean deltas
  • diagnostic arm on the same seeds: candidate-1ply (the tables played directly one ply, seven reveal strata)
  • reference arm on the same seeds: fair-d4s7 (the program's standing reference configuration), diagnostic only
  • training-curve diagnostics: per-validation-point paired margin of ntuple-d3s7 and ntuple-1ply over fair-d3s7 on the training-role validation block, training-game mean score and length, mean |TD error|, mean coherence, touched table entries
  • pilot diagnostics: the six arms' validation curves, including the windows-only mechanism ablation
Statistical unit
whole-game
Uncertainty method
one-sided 95% percentile bootstrap over whole games, 20,000 resamples, RNG seed 0xb0071eaf (the unchanged compare.py of the leaf-evolution screen), plus a one-sided 95% Student-t lower bound; detection floor 1.645*sd/sqrt(n) reported
Data role
public-development
Seed leases
  • SL-20260905T191317Z-09895ea2
  • SL-20260905T191317Z-549265de
  • SL-20260905T191317Z-c25f58cd
Whole-origin split
yes
Reuse disclosure
CHECK gates and the throughput smoke run read only the already-opened development probe block 0xa5276000-0xa5277fff (the Rust engine's gate/benchmark range); no new seed is opened for mechanics or timing. Training (pilot arms and main run) reads the training lease 0xa5300000-0xa54f0000 in order and wraps when the block is exhausted (wrap counts recorded per run); the validation block 0xa52f2240-0xa52f2280 (training role) is re-read at every validation point and drives configuration and checkpoint selection; the held-out screen opens 0xa52f2140-0xa52f2240 exactly once, after the candidate is frozen. Training, validation and screen ranges are disjoint by construction.
Pass criteria
  1. All CHECK gates passed before the first training seed was read: codec against Horner, row gather against the cell accessor, feature indices against the independent reference for every layout, information-boundary blindness (score/level/moves_played/next_disc), reflection consistency of values and decisions, direct-policy legality, leaf-in-search determinism and worker-count independence, serial training determinism, finiteness.
  2. Every validation artifact and the screen artifact have illegalDecisions 0 and incompleteDecisions 0; censored games are reported as censored.
  3. Held-out screen, 256 paired games on 0xa52f2140-0xa52f223f, candidate-d3s7 vs fair-d3s7: bootstrap 95% lower bound of the paired score delta > 0 AND Student-t 95% lower bound > 0.
  4. Held-out screen: paired mean score delta > 0 in both halves (seeds 0-127 and 128-255).
  5. Held-out screen: candidate-d3s7 lower-quartile score >= fair-d3s7 lower-quartile score.
  6. The screened candidate is the exact frozen best-weights.bin of the main run (candidate-weights.sha256 recorded before the screen lease opens); no other table is screened.
On pass
Freeze best-weights.bin with its SHA-256; register a fresh-block replication by a different runner and a fresh-development STANDARD evaluation as successors; do not open protected or final seeds.
On fail
Record a valid run with scientific outcome fail for this exact configuration (tuple layout, phase conditioning, optimiser, budget, deployment depth); do not adopt the tables; the diagnostic and reference arms and the pilot curves are reported as diagnostics; open no further cohort for this candidate.
Gate fixed before controlled data
yes
Resources
Wall seconds43200
CPU threads32
Max host bytes34359738368
Max GPU bytes
GPU devices
Stop conditions
  1. Stop on any rules, information-boundary, legality, determinism, or parity failure.
  2. A pilot arm stops at 2 x 10^8 moves; the main run stops at 4 x 10^9 moves or 18,000 s of training wall time, whichever comes first, or when a STOP file appears in the run directory; the candidate is then the best validation point so far.
  3. A validation or screen artifact with any illegal or incomplete decision voids the run (invalid), not the candidate.
  4. The screen is evaluated exactly once; no re-run on the same or a different held-out block without a new experiment record.
  5. The theory's training-signal falsifier (no validation point with a positive paired margin) is evaluated and reported separately; the screen is opened once on the frozen candidate regardless.
Expected artifacts
  • runs/<run-id>/ntuple-scale/gates.log (CHECK)
  • runs/<run-id>/ntuple-scale/pilot/<arm>/{config.json,progress.jsonl,val-*.json,best.json,best-weights.bin,latest-weights.bin} (stage A) and pilot/selection.json
  • runs/<run-id>/ntuple-scale/main/{config.json,progress.jsonl,val-*.json,best.json,best-weights.bin,latest-weights.bin,checkpoint.bin,DONE} (stage B)
  • runs/<run-id>/ntuple-scale/main/candidate-weights.sha256 (stage C)
  • runs/<run-id>/ntuple-scale/screen/heldout.json + compare-*.json (stage D)
  • runs/<run-id>/ntuple-scale/{pipeline.log,rusage.jsonl,analysis.json,analysis.md}
  • artifacts emitted by train and screen carry this experiment id in their config field; table files are too large for the repository and are retained on the workstation with their SHA-256 in the result record
Amendments
TimestampBefore controlled dataReason
2026-09-05T21:55:18Znolifecycle advanced running -> completed after run RUN-20260905T193006Z-4fbeb4e5 and result RS-20260905T215332Z-95d18a5a were written; protocol content otherwise unchanged (frozen hash ee8eabb0512f459bb0acbb717e335d5e6953d2ac7ec57400f2a35b9f1c76b65d retained in the run and lease records). Operational note: the pipeline's select-arm stage aborted on an empty output file between the pilot and the main run (fixed in commit bd87dba); the relaunch changed no block, gate, stage order or artifact.
Technical recordResults recorded against this protocol1 record
valid runoutcome: passsupported-as-testedtier: public-developmentRS-20260905T215332Z-95d18a5a

Held-out screen, 256 never-read paired public-development games (0xa52f2140+): the frozen n-tuple tables as the leaf of the depth-3 seven-stratum fair search averaged 484,577 points and 140.21 moves against 314,438 points and 92.58 moves for the identical search with the frozen fair leaf: paired +170,139 points (bootstrap 95% lower bound +130,499, Student-t lower bound +130,560, upper bound +209,881, detection floor 39,440), W-T-L 167-0-89, halves +198,575 / +141,704, lower quartile 212,820 vs 175,832, moves +47.63. The preregistered gate PASSES. Against the program's standing reference, the fair leaf at depth 4 on the same seeds (377,803 points), the candidate is +106,775 paired (bootstrap LB +62,574, UB +151,706, W-T-L 160-0-96); diagnostic only. The same tables played directly one ply averaged 281,441 points, -32,997 paired against fair-d3s7 (LB -58,536); diagnostic. Fair-d4s7 minus fair-d3s7 on these seeds: +63,365 (LB +31,538). Candidate: the tables of the main run's validation point at 1,400,240,319 training moves (layout rows,cols,win23,win32,phase=all, alpha 1.0, selected from six pilot arms by the preregistered rule with a final validation margin of +123,950), whose paired margin on the 64-game training-role validation block was +270,023; SHA-256 0ade9d4e4080ebdd52a1474b1a13410dc8dfb77f5eba24b078aa7703c92ace0b. Main run: 4,000,004,271 training moves, 45,852,198 games, 20 validation points, mean 1,956,636 moves per second. Mechanism ablation (pilot, windows-only arm E): final validation margin -83,261 against the full layout's +95,051 (arm A) and +123,950 (arm C, selected). Training-signal check: at least one validation point of the main run had a positive paired margin.

What it had to pass
  • All CHECK gates passed before the first training seed was read — observed: 15 gate lines, all PASS
  • Every validation artifact and the screen artifact have illegalDecisions 0 and incompleteDecisions 0 — observed: main validations illegal 0 / incomplete 0; screen arms candidate-d3s7: 0/0, candidate-1ply: 0/0, fair-d3s7: 0/0, fair-d4s7: 0/0
  • bootstrap 95% lower bound of candidate-d3s7 minus fair-d3s7 > 0 — observed: 130499.0115234375
  • Student-t 95% lower bound > 0 — observed: 130559.5594985295
  • paired mean delta > 0 in both halves — observed: [198574.609375, 141704.171875]
  • candidate-d3s7 Q25 >= fair-d3s7 Q25 — observed: [212819.75, 175831.5]
  • The screened candidate is the exact frozen best-weights.bin (SHA-256 recorded before the screen lease opened) — observed: 0ade9d4e4080ebdd52a1474b1a13410dc8dfb77f5eba24b078aa7703c92ace0b
Technical recordRecorded metricsRS-20260905T215332Z-95d18a5a
screen
games
256
seedStartHex
0xa52f2140
arms
candidate-d3s7
meanScore
484577.3867
medianScore
407473.5000
q25Score
212819.7500
minScore
102,537
maxScore
2,295,869
sdScore
359272.8703
meanMoves
140.2109
q25Moves
65
numberedClearsPerMove
2.1074
coverRevealsPerMove
1.1899
meanOccupiedCells
23.2670
censoredGames
0
illegalDecisions
0
incompleteDecisions
0
gamesAtOrAboveMillion
21
meanWallSecondsPerGame
4.2907
candidate-1ply
meanScore
281440.7266
medianScore
230849.5000
q25Score
157750.5000
minScore
85,331
maxScore
815,564
sdScore
164490.1308
meanMoves
84.3047
q25Moves
50
numberedClearsPerMove
1.9217
coverRevealsPerMove
1.0608
meanOccupiedCells
24.2171
censoredGames
0
illegalDecisions
0
incompleteDecisions
0
gamesAtOrAboveMillion
0
meanWallSecondsPerGame
0.0009
fair-d3s7
meanScore
314437.9961
medianScore
250,821
q25Score
175831.5000
minScore
85,561
maxScore
1,221,000
sdScore
199663.2623
meanMoves
92.5820
q25Moves
55
numberedClearsPerMove
1.9848
coverRevealsPerMove
1.1026
meanOccupiedCells
24.4343
censoredGames
0
illegalDecisions
0
incompleteDecisions
0
gamesAtOrAboveMillion
4
meanWallSecondsPerGame
4.6279
fair-d4s7
meanScore
377802.6289
medianScore
282076.5000
q25Score
192561.5000
minScore
102,904
maxScore
1,794,652
sdScore
276607.9151
meanMoves
109.3359
q25Moves
60
numberedClearsPerMove
2.0492
coverRevealsPerMove
1.1499
meanOccupiedCells
23.7628
censoredGames
0
illegalDecisions
0
incompleteDecisions
0
gamesAtOrAboveMillion
9
meanWallSecondsPerGame
182.2242
contrasts
candidate-d3s7-vs-fair-d3s7
score
n
256
meanDelta
170139.3906
pairedSd
383606.5536
bootstrapLower95
130499.0115
bootstrapUpper95
209881.3934
studentTLower95
130559.5595
detectionFloor
39439.5488
wins
167
ties
0
losses
89
firstHalfMeanDelta
198574.6094
secondHalfMeanDelta
141704.1719
q25Delta
36988.2500
candidateQ25
212819.7500
referenceQ25
175831.5000
moves
n
256
meanDelta
47.6289
pairedSd
106.0384
bootstrapLower95
36.6639
bootstrapUpper95
58.6172
studentTLower95
36.6881
detectionFloor
10.9021
wins
164
ties
9
losses
83
firstHalfMeanDelta
55.2969
secondHalfMeanDelta
39.9609
q25Delta
10
candidateQ25
65
referenceQ25
55
candidate-1ply-vs-fair-d3s7
score
n
256
meanDelta
-32997.2695
pairedSd
246695.1922
bootstrapLower95
-58536.1652
bootstrapUpper95
-7597.0516
studentTLower95
-58450.8338
detectionFloor
25363.3494
wins
114
ties
0
losses
142
firstHalfMeanDelta
-11748.5156
secondHalfMeanDelta
-54246.0234
q25Delta
-18,081
candidateQ25
157750.5000
referenceQ25
175831.5000
moves
n
256
meanDelta
-8.2773
pairedSd
67.8083
bootstrapLower95
-15.2854
bootstrapUpper95
-1.2967
studentTLower95
-15.2737
detectionFloor
6.9715
wins
112
ties
12
losses
132
firstHalfMeanDelta
-2.3516
secondHalfMeanDelta
-14.2031
q25Delta
-5
candidateQ25
50
referenceQ25
55
candidate-d3s7-vs-fair-d4s7
score
n
256
meanDelta
106774.7578
pairedSd
435009.0495
bootstrapLower95
62574.2055
bootstrapUpper95
151705.7729
studentTLower95
61891.3100
detectionFloor
44724.3679
wins
160
ties
0
losses
96
firstHalfMeanDelta
109211.3125
secondHalfMeanDelta
104338.2031
q25Delta
20258.2500
candidateQ25
212819.7500
referenceQ25
192561.5000
moves
n
256
meanDelta
30.8750
pairedSd
119.7043
bootstrapLower95
18.6875
bootstrapUpper95
43.2150
studentTLower95
18.5241
detectionFloor
12.3071
wins
157
ties
7
losses
92
firstHalfMeanDelta
31.5938
secondHalfMeanDelta
30.1563
q25Delta
5
candidateQ25
65
referenceQ25
60
fair-d4s7-vs-fair-d3s7
score
n
256
meanDelta
63364.6328
pairedSd
311371.6478
bootstrapLower95
31538.2639
bootstrapUpper95
95448.5086
studentTLower95
31237.8688
detectionFloor
32012.8975
wins
138
ties
0
losses
118
firstHalfMeanDelta
89363.2969
secondHalfMeanDelta
37365.9688
q25Delta
16,730
candidateQ25
192561.5000
referenceQ25
175831.5000
moves
n
256
meanDelta
16.7539
pairedSd
84.5155
bootstrapLower95
8.1170
bootstrapUpper95
25.4572
studentTLower95
8.0338
detectionFloor
8.6892
wins
132
ties
11
losses
113
firstHalfMeanDelta
23.7031
secondHalfMeanDelta
9.8047
q25Delta
5
candidateQ25
60
referenceQ25
55
candidate-d3s7-vs-candidate-1ply
score
n
256
meanDelta
203136.6602
pairedSd
359655.2798
bootstrapLower95
167198.7932
bootstrapUpper95
240597.7713
studentTLower95
166028.0782
detectionFloor
36977.0585
wins
185
ties
0
losses
71
firstHalfMeanDelta
210323.1250
secondHalfMeanDelta
195950.1953
q25Delta
55069.2500
candidateQ25
212819.7500
referenceQ25
157750.5000
moves
n
256
meanDelta
55.9063
pairedSd
99.8785
bootstrapLower95
45.9451
bootstrapUpper95
66.3281
studentTLower95
45.6010
detectionFloor
10.2688
wins
179
ties
8
losses
69
firstHalfMeanDelta
57.6484
secondHalfMeanDelta
54.1641
q25Delta
15
candidateQ25
65
referenceQ25
50
main
layout
rows,cols,win23,win32,phase=all
alpha
1
entries
1,000,000,000
movesTotal
4,000,004,271
gamesTotal
45,852,198
wallSeconds
2468.6000
meanMovesPerSecond
1956636.3300
best
moves
1,400,240,319
artifact
val-001400240319.json
pairedDeltaD3
270022.7813
ntupleD3Mean
607633.3750
fairD3Mean
337610.5938
validations
  1. movesTrained
    200,027,819
    ntupleD3Mean
    453535.5625
    directMean
    248686.2188
    fairD3Mean
    337610.5938
    pairedDeltaD3
    115924.9688
    bootstrapLower95
    46102.8594
    wins
    41
    losses
    23
  2. movesTrained
    400,060,957
    ntupleD3Mean
    473806.8906
    directMean
    281009.3750
    fairD3Mean
    337610.5938
    pairedDeltaD3
    136196.2969
    bootstrapLower95
    60912.2789
    wins
    39
    losses
    25
  3. movesTrained
    600,095,322
    ntupleD3Mean
    481647.8594
    directMean
    281904.2500
    fairD3Mean
    337610.5938
    pairedDeltaD3
    144037.2656
    bootstrapLower95
    70139.7203
    wins
    40
    losses
    24
  4. movesTrained
    800,131,078
    ntupleD3Mean
    491212.7813
    directMean
    255970.2188
    fairD3Mean
    337610.5938
    pairedDeltaD3
    153602.1875
    bootstrapLower95
    69106.0609
    wins
    39
    losses
    25
  5. movesTrained
    1,000,167,066
    ntupleD3Mean
    604501.7031
    directMean
    302303.4375
    fairD3Mean
    337610.5938
    pairedDeltaD3
    266891.1094
    bootstrapLower95
    158786.7648
    wins
    44
    losses
    20
  6. movesTrained
    1,200,203,606
    ntupleD3Mean
    474549.7031
    directMean
    265703.8906
    fairD3Mean
    337610.5938
    pairedDeltaD3
    136939.1094
    bootstrapLower95
    61272.7938
    wins
    41
    losses
    23
  7. movesTrained
    1,400,240,319
    ntupleD3Mean
    607633.3750
    directMean
    323224.9219
    fairD3Mean
    337610.5938
    pairedDeltaD3
    270022.7813
    bootstrapLower95
    165079.2219
    wins
    47
    losses
    17
  8. movesTrained
    1,600,277,123
    ntupleD3Mean
    509887.6719
    directMean
    276702.4375
    fairD3Mean
    337610.5938
    pairedDeltaD3
    172277.0781
    bootstrapLower95
    84741.3750
    wins
    43
    losses
    21
  9. movesTrained
    1,800,315,771
    ntupleD3Mean
    531421.6250
    directMean
    319334.0156
    fairD3Mean
    337610.5938
    pairedDeltaD3
    193811.0313
    bootstrapLower95
    107981.8070
    wins
    41
    losses
    23
  10. movesTrained
    2,000,352,773
    ntupleD3Mean
    593476.5781
    directMean
    318354.1406
    fairD3Mean
    337610.5938
    pairedDeltaD3
    255865.9844
    bootstrapLower95
    160477.3344
    wins
    39
    losses
    25
  11. movesTrained
    2,200,391,703
    ntupleD3Mean
    453484.7813
    directMean
    327689.7344
    fairD3Mean
    337610.5938
    pairedDeltaD3
    115874.1875
    bootstrapLower95
    38562.4789
    wins
    41
    losses
    23
  12. movesTrained
    2,400,429,413
    ntupleD3Mean
    552723.8125
    directMean
    304749.6250
    fairD3Mean
    337610.5938
    pairedDeltaD3
    215113.2188
    bootstrapLower95
    116273.5383
    wins
    43
    losses
    21
  13. movesTrained
    2,600,469,503
    ntupleD3Mean
    482608.7500
    directMean
    285457.5313
    fairD3Mean
    337610.5938
    pairedDeltaD3
    144998.1563
    bootstrapLower95
    70309.5562
    wins
    44
    losses
    20
  14. movesTrained
    2,800,506,807
    ntupleD3Mean
    496445.7344
    directMean
    302053.8594
    fairD3Mean
    337610.5938
    pairedDeltaD3
    158835.1406
    bootstrapLower95
    67962.9695
    wins
    37
    losses
    27
  15. movesTrained
    3,000,545,916
    ntupleD3Mean
    517928.1250
    directMean
    295604.6563
    fairD3Mean
    337610.5938
    pairedDeltaD3
    180317.5313
    bootstrapLower95
    102679.1250
    wins
    43
    losses
    21
  16. movesTrained
    3,200,585,530
    ntupleD3Mean
    547107.2344
    directMean
    298385.6094
    fairD3Mean
    337610.5938
    pairedDeltaD3
    209496.6406
    bootstrapLower95
    133542.7383
    wins
    44
    losses
    20
  17. movesTrained
    3,400,627,531
    ntupleD3Mean
    506536.4219
    directMean
    317633.5781
    fairD3Mean
    337610.5938
    pairedDeltaD3
    168925.8281
    bootstrapLower95
    75604.8477
    wins
    41
    losses
    23
  18. movesTrained
    3,600,668,274
    ntupleD3Mean
    470056.4063
    directMean
    303216.0313
    fairD3Mean
    337610.5938
    pairedDeltaD3
    132445.8125
    bootstrapLower95
    58261.5695
    wins
    41
    losses
    23
  19. movesTrained
    3,800,707,333
    ntupleD3Mean
    507070.8906
    directMean
    296535.6563
    fairD3Mean
    337610.5938
    pairedDeltaD3
    169460.2969
    bootstrapLower95
    90402.4133
    wins
    45
    losses
    19
  20. movesTrained
    4,000,004,271
    ntupleD3Mean
    530088.1406
    directMean
    320977.1563
    fairD3Mean
    337610.5938
    pairedDeltaD3
    192477.5469
    bootstrapLower95
    113016.1180
    wins
    43
    losses
    21
anyPositiveMargin
true
pilot
A
layout
rows,cols,win23,win32,phase=cols
alpha
1
entries
480,000,000
movesTotal
200,003,947
finalMargin
95050.8281
bestMargin
170874.3750
B
layout
rows,cols,win23,win32,phase=none
alpha
1
entries
200,000,000
movesTotal
200,002,183
finalMargin
-70586.8906
bestMargin
-35090.6563
C
layout
rows,cols,win23,win32,phase=all
alpha
1
entries
1,000,000,000
movesTotal
200,002,957
finalMargin
123949.5156
bestMargin
123949.5156
D
layout
rows,cols,phase=cols
alpha
1
entries
420,000,000
movesTotal
200,002,392
finalMargin
26950.8438
bestMargin
94015.3750
E
layout
win23,win32,phase=none
alpha
1
entries
60,000,000
movesTotal
200,001,766
finalMargin
-83261.4531
bestMargin
-80696.1250
F
layout
rows,cols,win23,win32,phase=cols
alpha
0.2500
entries
480,000,000
movesTotal
200,003,528
finalMargin
73116.2031
bestMargin
112885.6719
pilotSelection
arm
C
layout
rows,cols,win23,win32,phase=all
alpha
1
finalMargin
123949.5156
ranking
  1. arm
    C
    finalMargin
    123949.5156
    entries
    1,000,000,000
  2. arm
    A
    finalMargin
    95050.8281
    entries
    480,000,000
  3. arm
    F
    finalMargin
    73116.2031
    entries
    480,000,000
  4. arm
    D
    finalMargin
    26950.8438
    entries
    420,000,000
  5. arm
    B
    finalMargin
    -70586.8906
    entries
    200,000,000
  6. arm
    E
    finalMargin
    -83261.4531
    entries
    60,000,000
rule
the arm whose final validation point has the largest paired mean margin of ntuple-d3s7 over fair-d3s7; ties by fewer table entries
candidateSha256
0ade9d4e4080ebdd52a1474b1a13410dc8dfb77f5eba24b078aa7703c92ace0b
Limitations
  • Public-development SCREEN tier, 256 paired games opened once; nothing here is a qualification claim, and protected and final cohorts stay sealed.
  • The candidate is the validation point with the largest paired margin on a 64-game training-role block that was read at every validation point and also chose the configuration; that selection is upward-biased, which is why the held-out screen exists.
  • Training used lock-free asynchronous updates from 32 threads, so the training run is not bit-reproducible; the frozen tables are hashed and every gameplay arm is deterministic and worker-count independent.
  • The fair-d4s7 arm is the program's standing reference for context only; the preregistered comparator is the identical depth-3 search with the frozen fair leaf.
  • Table files (1.9 GB weights, 5.8 GB with accumulators for the pilot layouts; 4.0 GB and 12 GB for the selected phase=all layout) are retained on the workstation with their SHA-256 and are not committed.
  • Wall times were measured on a shared workstation with the web console building concurrently for part of the run; ratios between arms on the same seeds are the trustworthy quantity.

Open the result record

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To add a reader-facing explanation, write web/content/research/EX-20260905-ntuple-scale-tc-td-leaf-d3-535b2620.mdx; it renders above this record on the next request. The registered protocol itself is in the technical record above.

Record file: research/experiments/EX-20260905-ntuple-scale-tc-td-leaf-d3-535b2620.json, validated against research/schemas/experiment-v1.schema.json. Protocol hash: 4a867db795eec7e5e0858e58d6f59b14a13ed8ec03629cd155ce37a4b174b718.

Registered by Claude Code / claude-fable-5-1 (claude-code-ntuple-scale-experiment).