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Record idEX-20260906-ntuple-scale-depth4-frozen-tables-54aed6a3

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Technical recordThe registered protocolEX-20260906-ntuple-scale-depth4-frozen-tables-54aed6a3
Hypothesis
Candidate prior-d4s7: the frozen lookup tables of RUN-20260905T193006Z-4fbeb4e5 (layout rows,cols,win23,win32,phase=all, 10^9 f32 entries, SHA-256 0ade9d4e4080ebdd52a1474b1a13410dc8dfb77f5eba24b078aa7703c92ace0b, the candidate that passed the screens of EX-20260905-ntuple-scale-tc-td-leaf-d3-535b2620 and EX-20260906-ntuple-scale-replication-wide-plateau-f627f07a, unchanged) as the leaf of the Rust engine's completed full-width depth-4 fair expectimax search with seven chance strata, terminal utility -1,000,000, policy seed 0xd7075eed, work bound work_bound_for(4,7)+1 and a 1M-entry direct-mapped table (reference_d4_params, the configuration of the standing fair-d4s7 reference; Arm::NTupleD4 in approaches/ntuple-rl/ntuple-scale/src/game.rs). Comparator prior-d3s7: the identical tables as the leaf of the deployment depth-3 search (deployment_params, Arm::NTupleD3), the configuration both earlier screens evaluated. Two further arms on the same seeds complete a two-by-two leaf-by-depth design: fair-d3s7 and fair-d4s7, the frozen fair leaf in the same two searches. Hypothesis: prior-d4s7 beats prior-d3s7 in paired mean whole-game score on 512 never-read public-development games, and the fourth ply's paired gain on the tables is not smaller than its gain on the fair leaf on the same seeds. No training, no table is changed, and the screen is the only gameplay.
Arms
ArmNameEntry pointManifest
Candidateprior-d4s7approaches/ntuple-rl/ntuple-scale/src/game.rs
Comparatorprior-d3s7approaches/ntuple-rl/ntuple-scale/src/game.rs
Classification
algorithmic
Information boundary
public-policy
Benchmark tier
SCREEN
Lifecycle
completed
Primary metric
paired mean whole-game score delta, prior-d4s7 minus prior-d3s7 (the frozen tables as the depth-4 leaf minus the same tables as the depth-3 leaf), 512 held-out games
Secondary metrics
  • persistence: paired mean score delta prior-d4s7 minus fair-d4s7 on the same 512 games, with the same bounds, halves, W-T-L and lower quartile
  • depth-step interaction: the per-game difference (prior-d4s7 minus prior-d3s7) minus (fair-d4s7 minus fair-d3s7), its mean, bootstrap and Student-t bounds, detection floor and W-T-L, and the fixed three-way verdict (larger / smaller / inconclusive)
  • the fair leaf's own depth step on these seeds: fair-d4s7 minus fair-d3s7; and the tables' depth-3 margin on these seeds: prior-d3s7 minus fair-d3s7, prior-d3s7 minus fair-d4s7, prior-d4s7 minus fair-d3s7
  • paired mean moves delta; numbered clears per move and cover reveals per move; mean occupied cells; lower quartile, median, maximum score; first-half (seeds 0-255) and second-half (256-511) paired mean deltas; per-arm logical work and wall seconds per game
  • resource observations: per-stage wall, CPU and peak resident set
Statistical unit
whole-game
Uncertainty method
one-sided 95% percentile bootstrap over whole games, 20,000 resamples, RNG seed 0xb0071eaf (the unchanged compare.py of the leaf-evolution screen, and analyze.py's identical paired() for the interaction series), plus a one-sided 95% Student-t lower bound; detection floor 1.645*sd/sqrt(n) reported for every contrast
Data role
public-development
Seed leases
  • SL-20260906T081306Z-1aaec419
Whole-origin split
yes
Reuse disclosure
CHECK gates read only the already-opened development probe block 0xa5276000-0xa5277fff (the Rust engine's gate range, SEEDLEASE-A52-FAST); no new seed is opened for mechanics. The held-out screen opens 0xa52f2580-0xa52f2780 (512 games) exactly once, after the frozen tables' SHA-256 has been verified on disk. That block is disjoint from every block the tables' experiment read (training 0xa5300000-0xa54f0000, validation 0xa52f2240-0xa52f2280, screen 0xa52f2140-0xa52f2240) and from every block of the replication (training 0xa5500000-0xa56f0000, validation 0xa52f2280-0xa52f2380, screen 0xa52f2380-0xa52f2580), so no arm has seen any seed of this screen. Nothing is trained or tuned here; the four arms are fixed before the block opens.
Pass criteria
  1. All CHECK gates passed before the leased seed was read, on the frozen tables themselves (gate --weights): codec, row gather, feature indices for every layout, information-boundary blindness, reflection, direct-policy legality, leaf-in-search determinism and worker-count independence at depth 3 and at depth 4 (with the depth-4 arm doing more work than the depth-3 arm on every gate game), serial training determinism, finiteness.
  2. The screen artifact has illegalDecisions 0 and incompleteDecisions 0 in every arm; censored games are reported as censored.
  3. Held-out screen, 512 paired games on 0xa52f2580-0xa52f277f, prior-d4s7 vs prior-d3s7: bootstrap 95% lower bound of the paired score delta > 0 AND Student-t 95% lower bound > 0.
  4. Held-out screen: prior-d4s7 minus prior-d3s7 paired mean score delta > 0 in both halves (seeds 0-255 and 256-511).
  5. Held-out screen: prior-d4s7 lower-quartile score >= prior-d3s7 lower-quartile score.
  6. Every table arm is the exact frozen best-weights.bin of RUN-20260905T193006Z-4fbeb4e5 (SHA-256 0ade9d4e4080ebdd52a1474b1a13410dc8dfb77f5eba24b078aa7703c92ace0b, verified and written to main/prior-weights.sha256 and main/candidate-weights.sha256 before the screen lease opens); no other table is screened.
  7. Reported beside the gate, not part of it: persistence passes when prior-d4s7 vs fair-d4s7 meets the same four statistical criteria on the same 512 games; the depth-step interaction verdict is 'larger' when the bootstrap and Student-t 95% lower bounds of the per-game difference of depth steps are > 0, 'smaller' when its bootstrap 95% upper bound is < 0, and 'inconclusive' otherwise (floor reported).
On pass
Adopt prior-d4s7 (the unchanged tables at reference d4s7) as the candidate to carry forward; record the persistence and interaction readings; register a fresh-development STANDARD evaluation of the unchanged candidate as the successor; do not open protected or final seeds.
On fail
Record a valid run with scientific outcome fail for this exact configuration (these tables at reference d4s7); keep prior-d3s7 as the candidate to carry forward; report the persistence and interaction readings and the fair-leaf depth step as recorded; mark the theory not supported as tested (refuted if the primary falsifier's upper bound is below zero, inconclusive if the bounds straddle zero); open no further cohort for this candidate.
Gate fixed before controlled data
yes
Resources
Wall seconds14400
CPU threads32
Max host bytes34359738368
Max GPU bytes
GPU devices
Stop conditions
  1. Stop on any rules, information-boundary, legality, determinism, or parity failure.
  2. A screen artifact with any illegal or incomplete decision voids the run (invalid), not the candidate.
  3. The screen is evaluated exactly once; no re-run on the same or a different held-out block without a new experiment record.
  4. The screen process is stopped at 14,400 s of wall time; such a run is recorded as interrupted with whatever arms completed, and the gate is not evaluated on a partial artifact.
  5. Host memory above the declared bound (32 GiB resident) aborts the screen through the operating system or the operator; such a run is recorded as interrupted with its artifacts.
Expected artifacts
  • runs/<run-id>/ntuple-scale/gates.log (CHECK, on the frozen tables)
  • runs/<run-id>/ntuple-scale/main/{candidate-weights.sha256,prior-weights.sha256} (freeze: the same hash, the tables are not retrained)
  • runs/<run-id>/ntuple-scale/screen/heldout.json + compare-*.json (the one-shot screen, four arms)
  • runs/<run-id>/ntuple-scale/{pipeline.log,rusage.jsonl,screen.log,screen.err,analysis.json,analysis.md}
  • artifacts emitted by the screen carry this experiment id in their config field; the 4 GB table file is the retained artifact of RUN-20260905T193006Z-4fbeb4e5 and is not committed
Amendments
TimestampBefore controlled dataReason
2026-09-06T17:29:15Znolifecycle advanced preregistered -> completed after run RUN-20260906T081306Z-e62d9837 and result RS-20260906T171746Z-1623f833 were written; protocol content otherwise unchanged (frozen hash 18733b1875bd5fe93f8625a22d617e6aa77a611b88b306d62c64e5d9196091bb retained in the run and lease records).
Technical recordResults recorded against this protocol1 record
valid runoutcome: passsupported-as-testedtier: public-developmentRS-20260906T171746Z-1623f833

Held-out screen, 512 never-read paired public-development games (0xa52f2580+), four arms on identical seeds, no training. The frozen tables (SHA-256 0ade9d4e4080ebdd52a1474b1a13410dc8dfb77f5eba24b078aa7703c92ace0b) as the leaf of the depth-4 seven-stratum fair search averaged 516,155 points and 148.75 moves against 465,675 points and 134.82 moves for the same tables as the depth-3 leaf: paired +50,479 points (bootstrap 95% lower bound +14,707, Student-t lower bound +14,086, upper bound +86,224, detection floor 36,331), W-T-L 284-0-228, halves +67,335 / +33,623, lower quartile 233,182 vs 212,969, moves +13.93. The preregistered gate PASSES. The fair leaf's own fourth ply on these seeds: fair-d4s7 382,567 against fair-d3s7 332,968, fair-d4s7 minus fair-d3s7: paired +49,599 (bootstrap 95% lower bound +25,751, Student-t lower bound +25,578, upper bound +73,244, detection floor 23,979), W-T-L 289-0-223, halves +45,189 / +54,009. Depth-step interaction, per game (tables d4 minus tables d3) minus (fair d4 minus fair d3): +881 (bootstrap LB -40,932, t LB -41,742, UB +42,867, floor 42,550, W-T-L 250-0-262): the preregistered verdict is 'inconclusive'. Persistence: prior-d4s7 minus fair-d4s7: paired +133,588 (bootstrap 95% lower bound +102,051, Student-t lower bound +101,161, upper bound +165,801, detection floor 32,371), W-T-L 314-0-198, halves +137,477 / +129,699. The persistence criteria PASS. The tables' depth-3 margin on these seeds: prior-d3s7 minus fair-d3s7: paired +132,707 (bootstrap 95% lower bound +102,193, Student-t lower bound +101,741, upper bound +163,903, detection floor 30,913), W-T-L 309-0-203, halves +115,331 / +150,084. prior-d4s7 minus fair-d3s7: +183,187 (LB +150,976). Logical work per game: prior-d4s7 795,922,316, prior-d3s7 22,193,672, fair-d4s7 558,924,581, fair-d3s7 15,568,331; mean wall seconds per game on the shared 32-thread workstation: 152.3, 4.1, 175.7, 4.5. Theory falsifiers: primary upper bound below zero False; second leg upper bound below zero False; persistence lower bound at or below zero False.

What it had to pass
  • All CHECK gates passed on the frozen tables before the leased seed was read (including leaf-in-d4-search-determinism) — observed: 19 gate lines
  • screen artifact: illegalDecisions 0 and incompleteDecisions 0 in every arm — observed: null
  • bootstrap 95% lower bound of prior-d4s7 minus prior-d3s7 > 0 — observed: 14706.909765625
  • Student-t 95% lower bound > 0 — observed: 14085.866195359107
  • paired mean delta > 0 in both halves — observed: [67335.2890625, 33623.49609375]
  • prior-d4s7 Q25 >= prior-d3s7 Q25 — observed: [233181.75, 212968.75]
  • Every table arm is the exact frozen best-weights.bin of RUN-20260905T193006Z-4fbeb4e5 (SHA-256 verified before the screen lease opened) — observed: 0ade9d4e4080ebdd52a1474b1a13410dc8dfb77f5eba24b078aa7703c92ace0b
  • Persistence (beside the gate): bootstrap 95% lower bound of prior-d4s7 minus fair-d4s7 > 0 — observed: 102050.977734375
  • Persistence (beside the gate): Student-t 95% lower bound > 0 — observed: 101161.09894605307
  • Persistence (beside the gate): paired mean delta > 0 in both halves — observed: [137477.09765625, 129699.0859375]
  • Persistence (beside the gate): prior-d4s7 Q25 >= fair-d4s7 Q25 — observed: [233181.75, 208481.25]
  • Depth-step interaction verdict (beside the gate): larger / smaller / inconclusive — observed: {"verdict": "inconclusive", "meanDelta": 880.701171875, "bootstrapLower95": -40931.9, "bootstrapUpper95": 42867.4783203125}
Technical recordRecorded metricsRS-20260906T171746Z-1623f833
screen
games
512
seedStartHex
0xa52f2580
arms
prior-d3s7
meanScore
465675.2422
medianScore
352446.5000
q25Score
212968.7500
minScore
85,472
maxScore
2,674,728
sdScore
362210.7989
meanMoves
134.8203
q25Moves
65
numberedClearsPerMove
2.0987
coverRevealsPerMove
1.1851
meanOccupiedCells
23.2526
censoredGames
0
illegalDecisions
0
incompleteDecisions
0
meanWork
22193672.2422
meanWallSecondsPerGame
4.0569
games
512
prior-d4s7
meanScore
516154.6348
medianScore
392496.5000
q25Score
233181.7500
minScore
85,682
maxScore
2,716,683
sdScore
402055.6663
meanMoves
148.7461
q25Moves
70
numberedClearsPerMove
2.1255
coverRevealsPerMove
1.2033
meanOccupiedCells
23.0288
censoredGames
0
illegalDecisions
0
incompleteDecisions
0
meanWork
795922316.0430
meanWallSecondsPerGame
152.3118
games
512
fair-d3s7
meanScore
332967.8516
medianScore
262338.5000
q25Score
174598.7500
minScore
102,599
maxScore
1,745,301
sdScore
239092.2408
meanMoves
97.7227
q25Moves
55
numberedClearsPerMove
2.0115
coverRevealsPerMove
1.1225
meanOccupiedCells
23.9550
censoredGames
0
illegalDecisions
0
incompleteDecisions
0
meanWork
15568331.0957
meanWallSecondsPerGame
4.4931
games
512
fair-d4s7
meanScore
382566.5430
medianScore
303,015
q25Score
208481.2500
minScore
85,801
maxScore
2,634,604
sdScore
273944.2597
meanMoves
110.4453
q25Moves
60
numberedClearsPerMove
2.0459
coverRevealsPerMove
1.1460
meanOccupiedCells
23.8560
censoredGames
0
illegalDecisions
0
incompleteDecisions
0
meanWork
558924581.4180
meanWallSecondsPerGame
175.7455
games
512
contrasts
fair-d4s7-vs-fair-d3s7
score
n
512
meanDelta
49598.6914
pairedSd
329836.4896
bootstrapLower95
25751.4199
bootstrapUpper95
73244.3458
studentTLower95
25578.3583
detectionFloor
23978.9201
wins
289
ties
0
losses
223
firstHalfMeanDelta
45188.8555
secondHalfMeanDelta
54008.5273
q25Delta
33882.5000
candidateQ25
208481.2500
referenceQ25
174598.7500
moves
n
512
meanDelta
12.7227
pairedSd
89.7841
bootstrapLower95
6.2207
bootstrapUpper95
19.1624
studentTLower95
6.1841
detectionFloor
6.5273
wins
279
ties
18
losses
215
firstHalfMeanDelta
11.6719
secondHalfMeanDelta
13.7734
q25Delta
5
candidateQ25
60
referenceQ25
55
prior-d3s7-vs-fair-d3s7
score
n
512
meanDelta
132707.3906
pairedSd
425213.8113
bootstrapLower95
102193.1854
bootstrapUpper95
163903.4781
studentTLower95
101741.2067
detectionFloor
30912.7957
wins
309
ties
0
losses
203
firstHalfMeanDelta
115330.6641
secondHalfMeanDelta
150084.1172
q25Delta
38,370
candidateQ25
212968.7500
referenceQ25
174598.7500
moves
n
512
meanDelta
37.0977
pairedSd
117.1717
bootstrapLower95
28.7245
bootstrapUpper95
45.6993
studentTLower95
28.5646
detectionFloor
8.5183
wins
309
ties
13
losses
190
firstHalfMeanDelta
32.4453
secondHalfMeanDelta
41.7500
q25Delta
10
candidateQ25
65
referenceQ25
55
prior-d3s7-vs-fair-d4s7
score
n
512
meanDelta
83108.6992
pairedSd
435893.1761
bootstrapLower95
51348.7019
bootstrapUpper95
114438.8502
studentTLower95
51364.7909
detectionFloor
31689.1793
wins
282
ties
0
losses
230
firstHalfMeanDelta
70141.8086
secondHalfMeanDelta
96075.5898
q25Delta
4487.5000
candidateQ25
212968.7500
referenceQ25
208481.2500
moves
n
512
meanDelta
24.3750
pairedSd
119.4808
bootstrapLower95
15.6656
bootstrapUpper95
32.9825
studentTLower95
15.6738
detectionFloor
8.6862
wins
277
ties
16
losses
219
firstHalfMeanDelta
20.7734
secondHalfMeanDelta
27.9766
q25Delta
5
candidateQ25
65
referenceQ25
60
prior-d4s7-vs-prior-d3s7
score
n
512
meanDelta
50479.3926
pairedSd
499739.6551
bootstrapLower95
14706.9098
bootstrapUpper95
86224.4920
studentTLower95
14085.8662
detectionFloor
36330.7810
wins
284
ties
0
losses
228
firstHalfMeanDelta
67335.2891
secondHalfMeanDelta
33623.4961
q25Delta
20,213
candidateQ25
233181.7500
referenceQ25
212968.7500
moves
n
512
meanDelta
13.9258
pairedSd
137.7427
bootstrapLower95
4.0720
bootstrapUpper95
23.7852
studentTLower95
3.8947
detectionFloor
10.0138
wins
278
ties
14
losses
220
firstHalfMeanDelta
18.5117
secondHalfMeanDelta
9.3398
q25Delta
5
candidateQ25
70
referenceQ25
65
prior-d4s7-vs-fair-d4s7
score
n
512
meanDelta
133588.0918
pairedSd
445272.9877
bootstrapLower95
102050.9777
bootstrapUpper95
165801.3641
studentTLower95
101161.0989
detectionFloor
32371.0861
wins
314
ties
0
losses
198
firstHalfMeanDelta
137477.0977
secondHalfMeanDelta
129699.0859
q25Delta
24700.5000
candidateQ25
233181.7500
referenceQ25
208481.2500
moves
n
512
meanDelta
38.3008
pairedSd
122.5025
bootstrapLower95
29.6404
bootstrapUpper95
47.2169
studentTLower95
29.3795
detectionFloor
8.9059
wins
313
ties
16
losses
183
firstHalfMeanDelta
39.2852
secondHalfMeanDelta
37.3164
q25Delta
10
candidateQ25
70
referenceQ25
60
prior-d4s7-vs-fair-d3s7
score
n
512
meanDelta
183186.7832
pairedSd
452824.9076
bootstrapLower95
150975.5535
bootstrapUpper95
216399.5734
studentTLower95
150209.8220
detectionFloor
32920.1063
wins
345
ties
0
losses
167
firstHalfMeanDelta
182665.9531
secondHalfMeanDelta
183707.6133
q25Delta
58,583
candidateQ25
233181.7500
referenceQ25
174598.7500
moves
n
512
meanDelta
51.0234
pairedSd
124.9335
bootstrapLower95
42.1543
bootstrapUpper95
60.1797
studentTLower95
41.9252
detectionFloor
9.0826
wins
343
ties
8
losses
161
firstHalfMeanDelta
50.9570
secondHalfMeanDelta
51.0898
q25Delta
15
candidateQ25
70
referenceQ25
55
depth
primary
prior-d4s7-vs-prior-d3s7
tablesStep
meanDelta
50479.3926
bootstrapLower95
14706.9098
bootstrapUpper95
86224.4920
studentTLower95
14085.8662
detectionFloor
36330.7810
wins
284
ties
0
losses
228
firstHalfMeanDelta
67335.2891
secondHalfMeanDelta
33623.4961
candidateQ25
233181.7500
referenceQ25
212968.7500
fairStep
meanDelta
49598.6914
bootstrapLower95
25751.4199
bootstrapUpper95
73244.3458
studentTLower95
25578.3583
detectionFloor
23978.9201
wins
289
ties
0
losses
223
firstHalfMeanDelta
45188.8555
secondHalfMeanDelta
54008.5273
persistence
checks
  1. criterion
    screen artifact: illegalDecisions 0 and incompleteDecisions 0 in every arm
    passed
    true
  2. criterion
    bootstrap 95% lower bound of prior-d4s7 minus fair-d4s7 > 0
    passed
    true
    observed
    102050.9777
  3. criterion
    Student-t 95% lower bound > 0
    passed
    true
    observed
    101161.0989
  4. criterion
    paired mean delta > 0 in both halves
    passed
    true
    observed
    1. 137477.0977
    2. 129699.0859
  5. criterion
    prior-d4s7 Q25 >= fair-d4s7 Q25
    passed
    true
    observed
    1. 233181.7500
    2. 208481.2500
passed
true
interaction
verdict
inconclusive
n
512
meanDelta
880.7012
pairedSd
585280.6111
bootstrapLower95
-40931.9000
bootstrapUpper95
42867.4783
studentTLower95
-41742.3429
detectionFloor
42549.5586
wins
250
ties
0
losses
262
firstHalfMeanDelta
22146.4336
secondHalfMeanDelta
-20385.0313
theory
primaryFalsifierUpperBoundBelowZero
false
secondLegUpperBoundBelowZero
false
persistenceLowerBoundAtOrBelowZero
false
tablesSha256
0ade9d4e4080ebdd52a1474b1a13410dc8dfb77f5eba24b078aa7703c92ace0b
Limitations
  • Public-development SCREEN tier, 512 paired games opened once; nothing here is a qualification claim, and protected and final cohorts stay sealed.
  • No table was trained or changed: both table arms are the first experiment's frozen candidate, selected there at the best of twenty training-role validation points; this screen inherits that selection but adds none of its own.
  • The depth-4 search is the standing reference configuration (1M-entry table, seven strata, terminal utility -1,000,000); a different terminal utility, table size or stratum count is a different configuration and is not tested here.
  • The fair-d3s7 and fair-d4s7 arms are context for the interaction reading; the preregistered comparator is the identical tables at depth 3.
  • Wall times were measured on a shared workstation with all four arms run in sequence at 32 threads; logical work and the ratios between arms on the same seeds are the trustworthy cost quantities.
  • The per-game artifact is cited by its public archive reference (data.drop7.dev, immutable run-scoped key, digest in the fragment); a byte-identical copy remains under runs/RUN-20260906T081306Z-e62d9837/ntuple-scale/screen/heldout.json on the workstation and a promoted copy under artifacts/results/.

Open the result record

Agent contextHow to extend this record

To add a reader-facing explanation, write web/content/research/EX-20260906-ntuple-scale-depth4-frozen-tables-54aed6a3.mdx; it renders above this record on the next request. The registered protocol itself is in the technical record above.

Record file: research/experiments/EX-20260906-ntuple-scale-depth4-frozen-tables-54aed6a3.json, validated against research/schemas/experiment-v1.schema.json. Protocol hash: 163a44c36910ddd0c242512600c9bc35bfd3a76a8e12f2f4b3da622ffb822ab8.

Registered by Claude Code / claude-fable-5-1 (claude-code-ntuple-continuation-4-ply).