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Technical recordMetrics, gate checks and limitationsRS-20260906T040113Z-6ba93171
valid runoutcome: passsupported-as-testedtier: public-developmentRS-20260906T040113Z-6ba93171

Held-out screen, 512 never-read paired public-development games (0xa52f2380+): the frozen n-tuple tables as the leaf of the depth-3 seven-stratum fair search averaged 481,869 points and 139.39 moves against 326,717 points and 95.87 moves for the identical search with the frozen fair leaf: paired +155,153 points (bootstrap 95% lower bound +126,819, Student-t lower bound +126,919, upper bound +183,307, detection floor 28,185), W-T-L 333-0-179, halves +159,105 / +151,201, lower quartile 241,610 vs 192,040, moves +43.52. The preregistered gate PASSES. Replication: the first experiment's frozen tables (SHA-256 0ade9d4e4080ebdd52a1474b1a13410dc8dfb77f5eba24b078aa7703c92ace0b) as the same leaf on these fresh seeds averaged 487,066 points and 140.83 moves; prior-d3s7 minus fair-d3s7: paired +160,349 (bootstrap 95% lower bound +129,753, Student-t lower bound +129,626, upper bound +191,264, detection floor 30,670), W-T-L 330-0-182, halves +133,349 / +187,349. The replication criteria PASS. Scale: the wider, longer-trained candidate against the first candidate on the same seeds is -5,196 paired (bootstrap LB -40,535, t LB -40,060, UB +29,158, floor 34,803, W-T-L 267-1-244): the preregistered scale verdict is inconclusive. Against the program's standing reference, the fair leaf at depth 4 on the same seeds (397,154 points), the candidate is +84,716 paired (bootstrap LB +54,794, UB +114,355, W-T-L 298-0-214); diagnostic only. The first candidate against fair-d4s7 on these seeds: +89,912 (LB +58,243); diagnostic. The same tables played directly one ply averaged 328,039 points, +1,323 paired against fair-d3s7 (LB -17,545); diagnostic. Fair-d4s7 minus fair-d3s7 on these seeds: +70,437 (LB +46,917). Candidate: the tables of the main run's validation point at 2,000,153,332 training moves (layout rows,cols,win23,win32,win24,win42,phase=all, alpha 1, 5,800,000,000 entries), whose paired margin on the 256-game training-role validation block was +187,500; SHA-256 824b0a39a90d8a5aae63438c1538d4c5022f0e0f09c75fb7e2d758a1d6c6fb8a. Main run: 4,500,370,590 training moves, 47,477,538 games, 9 validation points, mean 1,184,973 moves per second, stopped by the plateau rule (last 4 validation points mean +165,666, the 4 before them +173,783). Training-signal check: at least one validation point of the main run had a positive paired margin.

What it had to pass
  • All CHECK gates passed before the first training seed was read — observed: 18 gate lines, all PASS
  • Every validation artifact and the screen artifact have illegalDecisions 0 and incompleteDecisions 0 — observed: main validations illegal 0 / incomplete 0; screen arms candidate-d3s7: 0/0, candidate-1ply: 0/0, prior-d3s7: 0/0, prior-1ply: 0/0, fair-d3s7: 0/0, fair-d4s7: 0/0
  • bootstrap 95% lower bound of candidate-d3s7 minus fair-d3s7 > 0 — observed: 126818.78720703124
  • Student-t 95% lower bound > 0 — observed: 126919.162189214
  • paired mean delta > 0 in both halves — observed: [159104.70703125, 151200.68359375]
  • candidate-d3s7 Q25 >= fair-d3s7 Q25 — observed: [241609.5, 192039.5]
  • The screened candidate is the exact frozen best-weights.bin (SHA-256 recorded before the screen lease opened) — observed: 824b0a39a90d8a5aae63438c1538d4c5022f0e0f09c75fb7e2d758a1d6c6fb8a
  • Replication: bootstrap 95% lower bound of prior-d3s7 minus fair-d3s7 > 0 — observed: 129753.3208984375
  • Replication: Student-t 95% lower bound > 0 — observed: 129625.57751269455
  • Replication: paired mean delta > 0 in both halves — observed: [133348.80078125, 187349.16796875]
  • Replication: prior-d3s7 Q25 >= fair-d3s7 Q25 — observed: [232825.0, 192039.5]
  • Replication: the prior arm is the first experiment's exact frozen tables (SHA-256 verified before the screen lease opened) — observed: 0ade9d4e4080ebdd52a1474b1a13410dc8dfb77f5eba24b078aa7703c92ace0b
Technical recordRecorded metricsRS-20260906T040113Z-6ba93171
screen
games
512
seedStartHex
0xa52f2380
arms
candidate-d3s7
meanScore
481869.3887
medianScore
393,375
q25Score
241609.5000
minScore
85,504
maxScore
2,487,485
sdScore
327121.3810
meanMoves
139.3867
q25Moves
70.7500
numberedClearsPerMove
2.1088
coverRevealsPerMove
1.1927
meanOccupiedCells
22.9657
censoredGames
0
illegalDecisions
0
incompleteDecisions
0
gamesAtOrAboveMillion
36
meanWallSecondsPerGame
5.4114
candidate-1ply
meanScore
328039.3203
medianScore
282096.5000
q25Score
178989.7500
minScore
85,684
maxScore
1,224,664
sdScore
190096.3800
meanMoves
97.2695
q25Moves
55
numberedClearsPerMove
1.9762
coverRevealsPerMove
1.0946
meanOccupiedCells
24.1436
censoredGames
0
illegalDecisions
0
incompleteDecisions
0
gamesAtOrAboveMillion
2
meanWallSecondsPerGame
0.0013
prior-d3s7
meanScore
487065.6777
medianScore
385960.5000
q25Score
232,825
minScore
85,504
maxScore
3,236,265
sdScore
381394.4123
meanMoves
140.8340
q25Moves
70
numberedClearsPerMove
2.1123
coverRevealsPerMove
1.1949
meanOccupiedCells
23.0757
censoredGames
0
illegalDecisions
0
incompleteDecisions
0
gamesAtOrAboveMillion
43
meanWallSecondsPerGame
4.2504
prior-1ply
meanScore
294323.1445
medianScore
247,261
q25Score
173120.7500
minScore
85,362
maxScore
1,270,003
sdScore
179592.4792
meanMoves
87.9121
q25Moves
54.7500
numberedClearsPerMove
1.9353
coverRevealsPerMove
1.0665
meanOccupiedCells
24.3244
censoredGames
0
illegalDecisions
0
incompleteDecisions
0
gamesAtOrAboveMillion
5
meanWallSecondsPerGame
0.0009
fair-d3s7
meanScore
326716.6934
medianScore
269,648
q25Score
192039.5000
minScore
103,026
maxScore
1,714,793
sdScore
204736.3872
meanMoves
95.8652
q25Moves
56.7500
numberedClearsPerMove
2.0033
coverRevealsPerMove
1.1138
meanOccupiedCells
24.0979
censoredGames
0
illegalDecisions
0
incompleteDecisions
0
gamesAtOrAboveMillion
7
meanWallSecondsPerGame
5.1310
fair-d4s7
meanScore
397153.8184
medianScore
320,815
q25Score
202359.7500
minScore
102,858
maxScore
1,707,841
sdScore
264186.5566
meanMoves
114.5469
q25Moves
60
numberedClearsPerMove
2.0598
coverRevealsPerMove
1.1550
meanOccupiedCells
23.7587
censoredGames
0
illegalDecisions
0
incompleteDecisions
0
gamesAtOrAboveMillion
19
meanWallSecondsPerGame
196.6131
contrasts
candidate-d3s7-vs-fair-d3s7
score
n
512
meanDelta
155152.6953
pairedSd
387690.2710
bootstrapLower95
126818.7872
bootstrapUpper95
183307.3728
studentTLower95
126919.1622
detectionFloor
28184.8563
wins
333
ties
0
losses
179
firstHalfMeanDelta
159104.7070
secondHalfMeanDelta
151200.6836
q25Delta
49,570
candidateQ25
241609.5000
referenceQ25
192039.5000
moves
n
512
meanDelta
43.5215
pairedSd
106.8674
bootstrapLower95
35.7206
bootstrapUpper95
51.2736
studentTLower95
35.7389
detectionFloor
7.7692
wins
331
ties
9
losses
172
firstHalfMeanDelta
44.6016
secondHalfMeanDelta
42.4414
q25Delta
14
candidateQ25
70.7500
referenceQ25
56.7500
candidate-1ply-vs-fair-d3s7
score
n
512
meanDelta
1322.6270
pairedSd
257859.8080
bootstrapLower95
-17,545
bootstrapUpper95
20096.1094
studentTLower95
-17456.0063
detectionFloor
18746.2574
wins
268
ties
0
losses
244
firstHalfMeanDelta
-21520.6602
secondHalfMeanDelta
24165.9141
q25Delta
-13049.7500
candidateQ25
178989.7500
referenceQ25
192039.5000
moves
n
512
meanDelta
1.4043
pairedSd
71.1180
bootstrapLower95
-3.7833
bootstrapUpper95
6.5742
studentTLower95
-3.7749
detectionFloor
5.1702
wins
263
ties
19
losses
230
firstHalfMeanDelta
-4.8789
secondHalfMeanDelta
7.6875
q25Delta
-1.7500
candidateQ25
55
referenceQ25
56.7500
candidate-d3s7-vs-fair-d4s7
score
n
512
meanDelta
84715.5703
pairedSd
412546.1390
bootstrapLower95
54794.3239
bootstrapUpper95
114355.1267
studentTLower95
54671.9093
detectionFloor
29991.8634
wins
298
ties
0
losses
214
firstHalfMeanDelta
92758.7422
secondHalfMeanDelta
76672.3984
q25Delta
39249.7500
candidateQ25
241609.5000
referenceQ25
202359.7500
moves
n
512
meanDelta
24.8398
pairedSd
113.2232
bootstrapLower95
16.6386
bootstrapUpper95
32.9903
studentTLower95
16.5944
detectionFloor
8.2313
wins
293
ties
12
losses
207
firstHalfMeanDelta
27.1406
secondHalfMeanDelta
22.5391
q25Delta
10.7500
candidateQ25
70.7500
referenceQ25
60
fair-d4s7-vs-fair-d3s7
score
n
512
meanDelta
70437.1250
pairedSd
319133.9625
bootstrapLower95
46916.5703
bootstrapUpper95
93486.4364
studentTLower95
47196.2031
detectionFloor
23200.8527
wins
302
ties
0
losses
210
firstHalfMeanDelta
66345.9648
secondHalfMeanDelta
74528.2852
q25Delta
10320.2500
candidateQ25
202359.7500
referenceQ25
192039.5000
moves
n
512
meanDelta
18.6816
pairedSd
86.7909
bootstrapLower95
12.2983
bootstrapUpper95
24.9356
studentTLower95
12.3611
detectionFloor
6.3096
wins
289
ties
21
losses
202
firstHalfMeanDelta
17.4609
secondHalfMeanDelta
19.9023
q25Delta
3.2500
candidateQ25
60
referenceQ25
56.7500
candidate-d3s7-vs-candidate-1ply
score
n
512
meanDelta
153830.0684
pairedSd
361441.8280
bootstrapLower95
127664.9001
bootstrapUpper95
180356.5437
studentTLower95
127508.0774
detectionFloor
26276.6098
wins
333
ties
0
losses
179
firstHalfMeanDelta
180625.3672
secondHalfMeanDelta
127034.7695
q25Delta
62619.7500
candidateQ25
241609.5000
referenceQ25
178989.7500
moves
n
512
meanDelta
42.1172
pairedSd
100.1258
bootstrapLower95
34.8573
bootstrapUpper95
49.4670
studentTLower95
34.8255
detectionFloor
7.2791
wins
330
ties
8
losses
174
firstHalfMeanDelta
49.4805
secondHalfMeanDelta
34.7539
q25Delta
15.7500
candidateQ25
70.7500
referenceQ25
55
prior-d3s7-vs-fair-d3s7
score
n
512
meanDelta
160348.9844
pairedSd
421880.1055
bootstrapLower95
129753.3209
bootstrapUpper95
191264.1133
studentTLower95
129625.5775
detectionFloor
30670.4373
wins
330
ties
0
losses
182
firstHalfMeanDelta
133348.8008
secondHalfMeanDelta
187349.1680
q25Delta
40785.5000
candidateQ25
232,825
referenceQ25
192039.5000
moves
n
512
meanDelta
44.9688
pairedSd
116.3619
bootstrapLower95
36.5253
bootstrapUpper95
53.5156
studentTLower95
36.4947
detectionFloor
8.4594
wins
326
ties
21
losses
165
firstHalfMeanDelta
37.6875
secondHalfMeanDelta
52.2500
q25Delta
13.2500
candidateQ25
70
referenceQ25
56.7500
candidate-d3s7-vs-prior-d3s7
score
n
512
meanDelta
-5196.2891
pairedSd
478728.0439
bootstrapLower95
-40535.3815
bootstrapUpper95
29157.6797
studentTLower95
-40059.6454
detectionFloor
34803.2492
wins
267
ties
1
losses
244
firstHalfMeanDelta
25755.9063
secondHalfMeanDelta
-36148.4844
q25Delta
8784.5000
candidateQ25
241609.5000
referenceQ25
232,825
moves
n
512
meanDelta
-1.4473
pairedSd
132.4515
bootstrapLower95
-11.2169
bootstrapUpper95
8.0607
studentTLower95
-11.0930
detectionFloor
9.6291
wins
261
ties
23
losses
228
firstHalfMeanDelta
6.9141
secondHalfMeanDelta
-9.8086
q25Delta
0.7500
candidateQ25
70.7500
referenceQ25
70
prior-d3s7-vs-fair-d4s7
score
n
512
meanDelta
89911.8594
pairedSd
434700.2797
bootstrapLower95
58243.2331
bootstrapUpper95
121566.8728
studentTLower95
58254.8237
detectionFloor
31602.4564
wins
290
ties
0
losses
222
firstHalfMeanDelta
67002.8359
secondHalfMeanDelta
112820.8828
q25Delta
30465.2500
candidateQ25
232,825
referenceQ25
202359.7500
moves
n
512
meanDelta
26.2871
pairedSd
119.4578
bootstrapLower95
17.5995
bootstrapUpper95
34.9923
studentTLower95
17.5876
detectionFloor
8.6845
wins
285
ties
20
losses
207
firstHalfMeanDelta
20.2266
secondHalfMeanDelta
32.3477
q25Delta
10
candidateQ25
70
referenceQ25
60
prior-1ply-vs-fair-d3s7
score
n
512
meanDelta
-32393.5488
pairedSd
256646.8681
bootstrapLower95
-51189.7492
bootstrapUpper95
-13947.6580
studentTLower95
-51083.8498
detectionFloor
18658.0774
wins
219
ties
0
losses
293
firstHalfMeanDelta
-50575.9883
secondHalfMeanDelta
-14211.1094
q25Delta
-18918.7500
candidateQ25
173120.7500
referenceQ25
192039.5000
moves
n
512
meanDelta
-7.9531
pairedSd
70.7517
bootstrapLower95
-13.1446
bootstrapUpper95
-2.8632
studentTLower95
-13.1056
detectionFloor
5.1436
wins
212
ties
27
losses
273
firstHalfMeanDelta
-12.9609
secondHalfMeanDelta
-2.9453
q25Delta
-2
candidateQ25
54.7500
referenceQ25
56.7500
replication
checks
  1. criterion
    screen artifact: illegalDecisions 0 and incompleteDecisions 0 in every arm
    passed
    true
  2. criterion
    bootstrap 95% lower bound of prior-d3s7 minus fair-d3s7 > 0
    passed
    true
    observed
    129753.3209
  3. criterion
    Student-t 95% lower bound > 0
    passed
    true
    observed
    129625.5775
  4. criterion
    paired mean delta > 0 in both halves
    passed
    true
    observed
    1. 133348.8008
    2. 187349.1680
  5. criterion
    prior-d3s7 Q25 >= fair-d3s7 Q25
    passed
    true
    observed
    1. 232,825
    2. 192039.5000
passed
true
scale
verdict
inconclusive
meanDelta
-5196.2891
bootstrapLower95
-40535.3815
bootstrapUpper95
29157.6797
studentTLower95
-40059.6454
detectionFloor
34803.2492
wins
267
ties
1
losses
244
main
layout
rows,cols,win23,win32,win24,win42,phase=all
alpha
1
entries
5,800,000,000
activePerState
122
validateGames
256
movesTotal
4,500,370,590
gamesTotal
47,477,538
wallSeconds
4357.8000
meanMovesPerSecond
1184973.3333
stop
reason
plateau
movesTotal
4,500,370,590
gamesTotal
47,477,538
wallSeconds
4462.4000
validationPoints
9
plateauWindow
4
recentWindowMean
165665.8408
previousWindowMean
173783.3174
bestMargin
187500.0781
best
moves
2,000,153,332
artifact
val-002000153332.json
pairedDeltaD3
187500.0781
ntupleD3Mean
525039.1602
fairD3Mean
337539.0820
validations
  1. point
    1
    movesTrained
    500,034,572
    ntupleD3Mean
    492111.3789
    directMean
    323747.6328
    fairD3Mean
    337539.0820
    pairedDeltaD3
    154572.2969
    bootstrapLower95
    118307.4332
    wins
    173
    losses
    83
    plateau
  2. point
    2
    movesTrained
    1,000,072,627
    ntupleD3Mean
    483528.0859
    directMean
    310861.9219
    fairD3Mean
    337539.0820
    pairedDeltaD3
    145989.0039
    bootstrapLower95
    106061.5297
    wins
    160
    losses
    96
    plateau
  3. point
    3
    movesTrained
    1,500,111,255
    ntupleD3Mean
    515398.6211
    directMean
    316633.8633
    fairD3Mean
    337539.0820
    pairedDeltaD3
    177859.5391
    bootstrapLower95
    135891.1139
    wins
    171
    losses
    85
    plateau
  4. point
    4
    movesTrained
    2,000,153,332
    ntupleD3Mean
    525039.1602
    directMean
    335958.7422
    fairD3Mean
    337539.0820
    pairedDeltaD3
    187500.0781
    bootstrapLower95
    144166.2436
    wins
    168
    losses
    88
    plateau
  5. point
    5
    movesTrained
    2,500,198,069
    ntupleD3Mean
    521323.7305
    directMean
    336159.7148
    fairD3Mean
    337539.0820
    pairedDeltaD3
    183784.6484
    bootstrapLower95
    138928.7887
    wins
    171
    losses
    85
    plateau
  6. point
    6
    movesTrained
    3,000,240,102
    ntupleD3Mean
    524169.5898
    directMean
    338270.4297
    fairD3Mean
    337539.0820
    pairedDeltaD3
    186630.5078
    bootstrapLower95
    142912.5244
    wins
    169
    losses
    87
    plateau
  7. point
    7
    movesTrained
    3,500,281,390
    ntupleD3Mean
    509645.5117
    directMean
    348955.2148
    fairD3Mean
    337539.0820
    pairedDeltaD3
    172106.4297
    bootstrapLower95
    130275.7250
    wins
    167
    losses
    89
    plateau
  8. point
    8
    movesTrained
    4,000,326,496
    ntupleD3Mean
    480053.3672
    directMean
    363824.5039
    fairD3Mean
    337539.0820
    pairedDeltaD3
    142514.2852
    bootstrapLower95
    106047.1164
    wins
    164
    losses
    92
    plateau
    points
    8
    window
    4
    recentMean
    171258.9678
    previousMean
    166480.2295
    stop
    false
  9. point
    9
    movesTrained
    4,500,370,590
    ntupleD3Mean
    498951.2227
    directMean
    362132.4141
    fairD3Mean
    337539.0820
    pairedDeltaD3
    161412.1406
    bootstrapLower95
    120448.6258
    wins
    159
    losses
    97
    plateau
    points
    9
    window
    4
    recentMean
    165665.8408
    previousMean
    173783.3174
    stop
    true
anyPositiveMargin
true
candidateSha256
824b0a39a90d8a5aae63438c1538d4c5022f0e0f09c75fb7e2d758a1d6c6fb8a
priorSha256
0ade9d4e4080ebdd52a1474b1a13410dc8dfb77f5eba24b078aa7703c92ace0b
smoke
layout
rows,cols,win23,win32,win24,win42,phase=all
entries
5,800,000,000
movesTotal
40,002,639
wallSeconds
33.8000
meanMovesPerSecond
1,240,481
Limitations
  • Public-development SCREEN tier, 512 paired games opened once; nothing here is a qualification claim, and protected and final cohorts stay sealed.
  • The candidate is the validation point with the largest paired margin on a 256-game training-role block that was read at every validation point and drove the plateau stop rule; that selection is upward-biased, which is why the held-out screen exists.
  • Training used lock-free asynchronous updates from 32 threads, so the training run is not bit-reproducible; the frozen tables are hashed and every gameplay arm is deterministic and worker-count independent.
  • The fair-d4s7 arm is the program's standing reference for context only; the preregistered comparator is the identical depth-3 search with the frozen fair leaf.
  • Table files (23.2 GB weights, 69.6 GB with accumulators) are retained on the workstation with their SHA-256 and are not committed.
  • Wall times were measured on a shared workstation; ratios between arms on the same seeds are the trustworthy quantity.
  • The replication arm re-screens tables frozen by the first experiment on a block that experiment never read; it is a fresh-block replication by the same runner on the same machine, not by an independent runner.

Recorded against Fresh-block replication of the row-and-column n-tuple leaf at larger scale: wider tables trained until the validation margins plateau, screened beside the first candidate.

Agent contextHow to extend this record

To add a reader-facing explanation, write web/content/research/RS-20260906T040113Z-6ba93171.mdx; it renders above this record on the next request. The recorded metrics, gate checks and limitations are in the technical record above.

Record file: research/results/RS-20260906T040113Z-6ba93171.json, validated against research/schemas/result-v1.schema.json.

Run ids
  • RUN-20260906T013222Z-ba0ee34f
Contribution ids
  • CT-20260906T014308Z-21df88ae
Per-game artifact
runs/RUN-20260906T013222Z-ba0ee34f/ntuple-scale/screen/heldout.json (sha256 7396b656ba400381a1be6d942821a8cd8e8a6d1cf85efb2a8e8718a427cfb646, 3072 records)
Machine profiles
  • research/system-profiles/MACH-20260906T014136Z-58c2ebe0.json