A leaf-affordable NNUE-class student trained on successor-closed exact D4 sibling values reproduces D4's within-root ordering at the d4q gate thresholds
A LeafNet-shaped student (approaches/lifetime-objective/learned-leaf/leaf_features.py features, EmbeddingBag(8902,64)->32, ~572k parameters, ~1.3 us per state) trained with a within-root listwise plus pairwise loss on the existing successor-closed exact D4 sibling-value labels (runs/RUN-20260821T085042Z-c5cf0e71/d4q-labels, 291,890 afterstates over 8,639 roots) reproduces fair D4's within-root ordering on whole-origin held-out roots at the frozen d4q thresholds: top-1 >= 0.60, pairwise >= 0.78, normalised regret <= 0.13, in each half-fold.
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Technical recordThe registered claim, mechanism and falsification criteria
- Claim
- A LeafNet-shaped student (approaches/lifetime-objective/learned-leaf/leaf_features.py features, EmbeddingBag(8902,64)->32, ~572k parameters, ~1.3 us per state) trained with a within-root listwise plus pairwise loss on the existing successor-closed exact D4 sibling-value labels (runs/RUN-20260821T085042Z-c5cf0e71/d4q-labels, 291,890 afterstates over 8,639 roots) reproduces fair D4's within-root ordering on whole-origin held-out roots at the frozen d4q thresholds: top-1 >= 0.60, pairwise >= 0.78, normalised regret <= 0.13, in each half-fold.
- Mechanism
- RS-20260821T104500Z-77d21e90 showed a 3.4M-parameter afterstate CNN reaches only top-1 0.375 on these labels, below exact D1 (0.486), and status.md relocated the obstacle to the capacity of a compact board evaluator. The leaf-affordable NNUE class has never been trained on these labels: it was trained on played-action lifetime (saturated at Pearson 0.855-0.857, RS-20260822T024228Z-94090db1) and on planner values (finding-11). The draft self-play theory TH-20260821-search-guided-self-play-at-scale-299ed02f needs a student that both holds D4's ordering and runs at leaf cost; this probe decides whether that student can exist in the only leaf-affordable model class, on data already on disk, for about one CPU-hour. A fail is a valid negative that routes the self-play loop to a root-prior redesign. Design: runs/RUN-20260823T191900Z-b9f8f80d/kimi-k3-open-items.md (K4-D probe, Kimi K3). Designer's prior: P(pass) about 0.08.
- Falsification criteria
- Held-out (whole-origin, the d4q experiment's own split) top-1 < 0.60 OR pairwise < 0.78 OR normalised regret > 0.13 in either half-fold, for the best of 5 initialisation seeds judged on the validation origins only, refutes the claim for this model class at this size; the held-out panel is already-read diagnostic data, so even a pass is not evidence and licenses only a fresh-manifest confirmation.
- A pass that fails a fresh whole-origin label manifest confirmation refutes it at one tier higher.
- Information class
- public-policy
- Lifecycle
- assessed
- Assessment
- not-supported-as-tested
- Evidence tier
- pilot
- Dependencies
- Evidence references
research/results/RS-20260821T104500Z-77d21e90.jsonresearch/results/RS-20260822T024228Z-94090db1.jsonruns/RUN-20260823T191900Z-b9f8f80d/kimi-k3-open-items.mdresearch/results/RS-20260823T194142Z-946e3cd1.json
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